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I love seeing all the speculation here on HackerNews about why tech companies flock to California, and especially to the Bay Area. Everyone has their own theory

I love seeing all the speculation here on HackerNews about why tech companies flock to California, and especially to the Bay Area. Everyone has their own theory: access to money, the great weather, non-competes not being enforceable, great universities, the “pay it forward” attitude, immigrant diversity and tolerance, "good" public transit (as compared to other parts of the US), network effect (because the best developers, investors, and tech companies are already there), beautiful landscapes and the ocean, concentration of VCs, etc. It reminds me of a similarly long discussion here on HN about why Americans were generally thin in the 1950s but much fatter today. Again, everyone was pretty sure of their reason, the leading theories being: fast food, food being cheaper, rise of sedentary jobs, less physical activity due to more cars & labor saving devices, wives now working outside and not cooking at home, big reduction in smoking (because it keeps you thin), more sugar in foods, more carbs in our diet, etc. All of the theories above sound reasonable. The problem is that there is almost no way to do controlled experiments to find the true answer. And the true answer could be quite complex, like it was initially 38% factor A, 22% factor B, and the C,D, & E making up the rest, but over time it's become 5% factor A, 11% factor B, with factor D now dominating at 58%. I'm resigned to the conclusion that we're not going to know the answer. It's a complex interaction of millions of individual decisions and interrelated changes over a period of decades in a way that's not reproducible.

Felz 8y ago
I'm skeptical of any model that throws up its hands and says "this is so for a number of reasons I guess". Multifactor trends are unlikely [1], bad at explanation and prediction, and easy to fit to anything. It's better to admit you don't know than say it's a combination of N things. Remember, most things are hard to explain until you know the truth. That doesn't mean the truth is super complicated. [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifactorial-trends/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifa...
scottlocklin 8y ago
It is probably first mover effect. Bay Area had silicon valley. Remember silicon? Many things involving semiconductors and electronics grew up in the Bay Area because of Fairchild and the traitorous 8. In fact, you could make the argument that the first generation of electronics businesses involving vacuum tubes were in the area as well (in Oakland). Software companies growing there happened later when the semiconductor money needed something to invest in, and computers were something semiconductor people understood. Nobody wonders at Wall Street being a center of finance after some 18th century traders met under a buttonwood tree, nobody wonders at Hollywood continuing to be a center of film and TV production, and nobody should wonder at Bay Area being a center of software development.
sjapkee 8y ago
Does everyone really love the California climate? It's awful. too hot, forest fires almost every year, drought. Only deserts are worse than that.
- PopeDotNinja 8y ago
  I love the San Francisco climate. Minus the fires, which are a recent, suboptimal thing. It's rarely too hot or too cold for me.
thedaveoflife 8y ago
>It's a complex interaction of millions of individual decisions and interrelated changes over a period of decades in a way that's not reproducible. Somewhat incidentally this is the major theme of Tolstoy's masterpiece War and Peace

Felz 8y ago

I'm skeptical of any model that throws up its hands and says "this is so for a number of reasons I guess". Multifactor trends are unlikely [1], bad at explanation and prediction, and easy to fit to anything. It's better to admit you don't know than say it's a combination of N things. Remember, most things are hard to explain until you know the truth. That doesn't mean the truth is super complicated. [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifactorial-trends/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifa...

scottlocklin 8y ago

It is probably first mover effect. Bay Area had silicon valley. Remember silicon? Many things involving semiconductors and electronics grew up in the Bay Area because of Fairchild and the traitorous 8. In fact, you could make the argument that the first generation of electronics businesses involving vacuum tubes were in the area as well (in Oakland). Software companies growing there happened later when the semiconductor money needed something to invest in, and computers were something semiconductor people understood. Nobody wonders at Wall Street being a center of finance after some 18th century traders met under a buttonwood tree, nobody wonders at Hollywood continuing to be a center of film and TV production, and nobody should wonder at Bay Area being a center of software development.

sjapkee 8y ago

Does everyone really love the California climate? It's awful. too hot, forest fires almost every year, drought. Only deserts are worse than that.

PopeDotNinja 8y ago
I love the San Francisco climate. Minus the fires, which are a recent, suboptimal thing. It's rarely too hot or too cold for me.

thedaveoflife 8y ago

>It's a complex interaction of millions of individual decisions and interrelated changes over a period of decades in a way that's not reproducible. Somewhat incidentally this is the major theme of Tolstoy's masterpiece War and Peace