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I'm expecting the "tech bubble" to burst at some point. Looks at this way. Desktop and laptop market is saturated. Phone market soon. Semiconductor industry rea

by pkaye 8y ago

I'm expecting the "tech bubble" to burst at some point. Looks at this way. Desktop and laptop market is saturated. Phone market soon. Semiconductor industry reaching its limits. Ad revenue will trend down as governments clamp down on a lot of the sketchy stuff. A lot is riding on self driving cars and machine learning. What else is new in the horizon that people really need?

speeq 8y ago
That sounds like "640KB RAM is more than anyone will ever need" to me.
CptFribble 8y ago
The tail of what's possible with ML is very long. We've just only picked the low-hanging fruit. Medtech is going to be big this century, as biocompatible nanotech and the shockwaves of CRISPR reverberate through industry over the next couple decades. Not saying immortality is coming or anything, but within 20-30 years we'll probably see a slew of new therapies and products. And if anyone figures out a really good, affordable BCI, then that's another Pandora's box of possibilities. Also, I respectfully disagree on a downward trend of ad revenue. The rise of advertorials in news outlets, product-placement-driven subscription media a la Netflix, and the whole influencer thing indicates our future will be even more fully integrated with advertisement. The per-impression cost may still fall, but look forward to the day when anyone with friends is micro-compensated in realtime for mentioning Coke at a party.
mikeg8 8y ago
There are going to be many, many more ways we utilize software and connected devices to optimize existing industures (construction, healthcare, logistics etc). Some of them will seem so obvious in retrospect, others will be exceptionally creative and thus hard to predict. We may have reached a saturation point for hardware (but even that will need constant replacing), but the ways we deploy technologies out into our economy will continue moving forward for many years to come. Tech changes, but always moves forward.

by pkaye 8y ago

speeq 8y ago

That sounds like "640KB RAM is more than anyone will ever need" to me.

CptFribble 8y ago

The tail of what's possible with ML is very long. We've just only picked the low-hanging fruit. Medtech is going to be big this century, as biocompatible nanotech and the shockwaves of CRISPR reverberate through industry over the next couple decades. Not saying immortality is coming or anything, but within 20-30 years we'll probably see a slew of new therapies and products. And if anyone figures out a really good, affordable BCI, then that's another Pandora's box of possibilities. Also, I respectfully disagree on a downward trend of ad revenue. The rise of advertorials in news outlets, product-placement-driven subscription media a la Netflix, and the whole influencer thing indicates our future will be even more fully integrated with advertisement. The per-impression cost may still fall, but look forward to the day when anyone with friends is micro-compensated in realtime for mentioning Coke at a party.

mikeg8 8y ago

There are going to be many, many more ways we utilize software and connected devices to optimize existing industures (construction, healthcare, logistics etc). Some of them will seem so obvious in retrospect, others will be exceptionally creative and thus hard to predict. We may have reached a saturation point for hardware (but even that will need constant replacing), but the ways we deploy technologies out into our economy will continue moving forward for many years to come. Tech changes, but always moves forward.