12 ms·
Ethiopian Airlines plane crash: No survivors among 157 on board
- cjbprime 8y agoI just read that the software update for MCAS (the Lion Air crash cause) had been delayed and isn't rolling out until next month. If that's true, seems to raise the probability of this being a similar MCAS issue.
- blantonl 8y agoWay to early to speculate as to the cause. You could raise the possibility as to a number of reasons as to what happened.
- JshWright 8y agoThe parent comment merely said delayed MCAS training would make it more likely that it was the cause. That seems like an obviously true statement... If the training had happen, that would obviously make it less likely. Given the number of other similarities to the Lion Air crash, I think the parent comment was being pretty conservative in their speculation (at this point, I'd be surprised if it _wasn't_ MCAS related).
- cjbprime 8y agoQuick clarification: it's a software update to the plane's MCAS (I think automatically disabling it when the pilots are trying to adjust trim themselves) that's been delayed, not training.
- celticninja 8y agoI mean this is a comment section on HN, surely this is where speculation can occur?
- blantonl 8y agoSo, I wonder how much credence my comment would get if I proclaimed: "My guess is both pilots fell asleep right after takeoff but before they could get the autopilot engaged, so the plane plummeted to the ground because no one was awake at the controls."
- celticninja 8y agoProbably very little, but there is nothing stopping you making that statement. However HN usually has a decent signal/noise ratio so it's worth discussing here at the very least.
- tapland 8y agoA messenger of Manwë pulled it out of the sky. It was clearly marked speculation. If we are not allowed discussions about possibilities we can kill off comment fields right now.
- 55k 8y agoWhat are your source on the delayed MCAS software update?
- cjbprime 8y agohttps://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-and-regulators-delay-jetliner-fixes-prompted-by-lion-air-crash-11549821489 https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-and-regulators-delay-jet... Boeing and Regulators Delay Jetliner Fixes Prompted by Lion Air Crash Software update, initially expected in January, now likely pushed until April or later
- stackola 8y agoSecond 737 Max to go down within the span of a few months. I hope it's a coincidence, but that can't look good on Boeing. E: Removed the word 'sure'
- ulfw 8y agoWhat makes you sure it is a coincidence?
- stackola 8y agoI simply didn't want to jump to a conclusion, of course I can not be sure.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- alistairSH 8y agoIs it a coincidence? Or, is it the same problem again? It appears (by the map in the link) that this one also crashed not long after take-off.
- tialaramex 8y agoMost incidents are going to happen at the two parts of the flight with least margin for error, take-off and landing. Even if something bad does go wrong in cruise, you are very far from the ground and glide well, you have lots of chances to fix it and not die. So, sure, it might not be a coincidence, but "it happened near take off" is not surprising.
- huffmsa 8y ago"It's not the fall that kills you, it's the ground" is an adage for a reason
- alistairSH 8y ago
- appleflaxen 8y agoI predict that this is going to end up being a software error related to the angle of attack sensor (Boeing reported possible problems with the AOA on 11/7/2018) basis: none whatsoever; just a guess. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-that-fly-the-boeing-737-max-2018-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-that-fly-the-boeing...
- JshWright 8y agoThe incident definitely bears a lot of similarities to the recent Lion Air crash that prompted that report (control issues shortly after takeoff, followed by a high energy impact).
- unionemployee 8y agoIn response to future 'trim system/AOA sensor' comments: Transport aircraft have a procedure to cut out a runaway/malfunctioning trim or stick pusher. Usually, this procedure is to press and hold the autopilot disconnect button on the yoke/stick or the trim switch and then, later, deactivate the system. The pressing of the autopilot disconnect button or trim switch is a 'memory item', meaning that it should be performed immediately, without a checklist, upon recognizing that there's a problem. Previously, this malfunction has been a rare occurrence, and so can be startling to pilots or not immediately recognized. I've seen pilots fail to apply the procedure and crash many times in the simulator, even after being told it was coming. It could be said that the pilots of the Lion Air aircraft and, potentially, this Ethiopian aircraft should have known the procedure and reacted properly, however, for Boeing to put them in this situation is, in my opinion, also quite hazardous. With so many hastily trained and low-competence airline pilots flying around, should we really rely on them to understand the technology and react properly?
- tinus_hn 8y agoOr should we not have hastily trained low-competence pilots flying around?
- cjbprime 8y agoThe pilot on this plane appears to have been expert, flying for the airline for around a decade.
- unionemployee 8y agoI don't think that's avoidable. The demand is too high right now. Personally, I'd like to see increased automation and "low-pilot" aircraft enter service.
- VLM 8y agoNote that we have decades of experience and skill at easily teaching basic stick and rudder flying skills, however deploying independent systems/automation analysts under emergency conditions is highly problematic and will likely result in more tragedies. I'm just saying its simpler, cheaper, and safer to deploy people who can troubleshoot simple flying systems rather than to deploy people who will have to debug untested and complicated automation systems on the fly. It would be the most extreme field service posting, ever. What we have here is an over optimization problem; we "have to" build unflyable aircraft to keep up with everyone elses level of recklessness to squeeze a couple more hyper-financialized pennies out of the system or be replaced by someone reckless enough to do it. Traditionally regulation helps in these situations. The aircraft of the future is far more likely to have networking and interconnected processors prohibited by law for safety reasons than to be an internet of things self-flying appliance. That would result in a nice simple, admittedly lower performance, far more reliable overall system. Non-networked non-interconnected control microprocessors seem safe enough so far, but making an infinitely complicated hyper optimized system seems in practice to result in planes falling out of the sky too often.
- vonholstein 8y agoDoes someone here know offhand the fatality rate for the Max per flying hour at this time? http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm lumps max together with other 737 models, which of course turns out to be very safe.
- sligor 8y agotheses high Flights numbers seems to be incoherent with the fact that Max is a new plane with small number delivered, it is surely a mistake with the 737NG (next gen) introduced in 1997
- davesque 8y agoHonestly, I know people often jump in here with technical comments on stories like these, but posting this stuff on HN always just feels like rubbernecking to me.
- segmondy 8y agoIf this is a software error should someone be held responsible? Developer? QA? Manager? Did they follow their process? Kind of scary for us to think of...