3 ms·
I'd simply say that if something isn't ready, then as a general rule, don't make decisions as though it will be ready at a particular time in the future. For i
by rch 8y ago
I'd simply say that if something isn't ready, then as a general rule, don't make decisions as though it will be ready at a particular time in the future.
For instance, buying a home thinking that a new highway will be done around the time you move in could lead to multiple years of disappointment. Voting to allow your city to provide substantial financial incentives could enable the builder to go to extraordinary lengths to get the project done at the appointed time.... but even then, only within reason.
- Lewton 8y agoIf you run your businsss like this you will be outcompeted by people who make reasonable guesses on when things will be completed
- rch 8y agoSurvival bias: companies that guess poorly aren't around to explain why they believed they were being reasonable. ...to expand a bit: you're more likely to benefit from correct forward looking estimates if you have sound alternatives available when those estimates to be less than completely accurate.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- sporkland 8y agoIs there evidence for this? There are some very real examples of software companies that thrive by not providing estimates, valve, blizzard, google, apple, etc. I would assume the dominant factor in software delivery is actually ability solve user problems and not being able to time when those problems will be solved.