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Why do you think we are in danger of a dramatic slow down in new tech? The tech challenges today are certainly more difficult but our gains compound on themsel
by pretendscholar 8y ago
Why do you think we are in danger of a dramatic slow down in new tech? The tech challenges today are certainly more difficult but our gains compound on themselves. Faster computers allow for previously computationally infeasible techniques, better tech allows for better understanding of biology from which we draw better, biologically inspired techniques, better cultural improvements/ greater access to information allows more people to work on a given problem. I definitely see certain roadblocks like the end of moore's law but there are other ways forward too.
- jcranmer 8y agoExponential curves are unnatural. If there is something that constrains growth--such as physical laws about energy constraints--then you'll get a sigmoid curve instead. And it does seem that we're on the slowdown section of that curve for computers. Meanwhile, in biology, we can summarize most of the research results of the past few decades as "it turns out that this is more complex than we thought it was."