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At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? Where’s Waymos product? Will they sell to consumers or the incumbent car makers? I agree with your statement

by wil421 8y ago

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? Where’s Waymos product? Will they sell to consumers or the incumbent car makers? I agree with your statement about Tesla’s marketing of self driving. My Grand Cherokee isn’t so far off their mark. It has lane assist, adaptive cruise control with stop, parallel and back in parking. I’d bet Jeep could do summon and more stuff on the highway.

FireBeyond 8y ago
> At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? What self driving product do they have? Elon's "Oh yeah, we will have full self driving coast to coast in [8 months]" is horseshit to the point of "How is he allowed to say this on an earnings call?" Other competitors, widely recognized to be ahead of Tesla estimate 5, more likely 10 YEARS. Coast to coast? Your Tesla will navigate a Pittsburgh winter storm on poor roads in Level 5 autonomy... this year? No. So then we're with "sophisticated driver assist". Actual products you can buy with sophisticated driver assist are sold by: Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Chrysler... My Jaguar has: adaptive cruise, four way sensors, lane assist, including ability to prevent you from changing lanes if a blind spot obstruction is noted, adaptive front lighting and high beam assist, driver condition monitoring (detects multiple 'drift', lane departure events or sub-optimal braking), traffic sign recognition and adaptive speed limiting, rear traffic monitoring including the ability to avoid, if possible, full auto parking, and so on.
- zaroth 8y ago
  My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan all around you and keep situational awareness of the drivers around you while the car keeps itself in lane. It’s a totally different experience.
  - close04 8y ago
    > The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme Assuming you keep your hands on the wheel as required what exactly is the difference? I only found it to be a distraction as it takes me considerably longer to reengage (in less than expected situations) as the human driver after a period where I just let go a little.
    - zaroth 8y ago
      That’s your experience as a Tesla driver? I don’t have any “reengagement lag” as you might say. When I want to start steering the car again I just start steering. There is a slight resistance felt in the wheel if you turn past the autopilot without flipping the right stick up to explicitly disengage AP first.
    - eclipxe 8y ago
      There is a massive difference in the driving experience. How long did you try it for?
  - mbreese 8y ago
    And my wife’s Acura will completely steer itself (with a much shorter list of features), but requires your hands on the wheel. It works without your hands, but it gets testy if you don’t move the wheel slightly every 15 seconds. It’s significantly nicer to drive long stretches with this system, but I can’t imagine doing it without your hands on the wheel. When the sensors fail (weather or poor lane markings), you need to be able to take over immediately. Granting too much autonomy to the system is just too risky (and the point of the article).
    - zaroth 8y ago
      Are you taking about LKAS? [1] Not trying to be rude, but that is nothing at all like driving with AutoPilot. [1] - https://youtu.be/iKWBdySgssE https://youtu.be/iKWBdySgssE
      - 8y ago
- leesec 8y ago
  How are you going to say Tesla doesn't have a product and then go on to list a bunch of worse products as if they are better? Tesla has effectively incorporated Lane Keep Assist/Automatic Cruise Control into a single product called Autopilot that has vastly better software than other similar products. Simply put, if other companies had a product that would have allowed for billions of miles to be driven hands free feet free, they would have it, but they do not, not even close. Tesla does.
  - joshuamorton 8y ago
    >Tesla has effectively incorporated Lane Keep Assist/Automatic Cruise Control into a single product called Autopilot that has vastly better software than other similar products. Is it? This[1] implies that, contrary to what you say, most other manufacturers do offer equivalent features in equivalent luxury vehicles. Tesla might have gotten beaten many of them by a year or so, and might sell more Xs than Toyota sells high-trim Lexus's, but neither of those things really say anything about the quality of the driving technology. And from what I've seen, Tesla's isn't particularly spectacular. [1]: https://www.cars.com/articles/which-cars-have-self-driving-features-for-2018-1420699785509/ https://www.cars.com/articles/which-cars-have-self-driving-f...
  - FireBeyond 8y ago
    Vastly better? I'm not sure the last time my car did an uncommanded lane change on a well painted road with good ambient light. Yet, I can find multiple videos of Teslas doing exactly that. I'm not sure the last time (actually I am - it has not) my car treated a roundabout with a shallow center median as "entirely optional, follow the circle or go straight over", but I can find multiple videos of Teslas doing that. The two cars I've driven that are modern (2017 and 2018 Audi and Jaguars) also didn't hit a big white pickup truck in broad daylight in parking mode, but I've seen Teslas doing that, too. So, how are we defining "bunch of worse products"? "Less advanced, but better tested"? If that's the case, I think I'll take that.
    - leesec 8y ago
      Weird, when I search "Jaguar self driving" or "Jaguar Hands Free" I don't find any real videos of it at all. Are you sure it's not Jaguar that doesn't have self driving? Do you actually drive your car hands free and feet free for more than 30 seconds ever?
mikestew 8y ago
At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? I have a self-driving automotive product you can buy. It doesn't work as advertised, either. Calling a lamb's tail a leg doesn't make for a five-legged farm animal. This reminds me of the conversations about, say, phone authentication using facial identification. "Samsung had it before FaceID!" Yeah, I had one of those Samsung phones. It did not do what it said on the tin. So, yeah, Tesla has a product you can buy, but it is not a self-driving vehicle despite what they might tell you.
- leesec 8y ago
  What do you call it when a Tesla drives me 90% of the way to work where I don't do anything but observe? It's not full self driving but it definitely is driving it self and providing value.
  - bombas 8y ago
    ^Exactly. I think Tesla's marketing is shit around this. Elon needs to shut the hell up on twitter as well. Stop coming at me with Waymo is 10 years ahead of Tesla... Ok great, are they shipping & delivering any value to paying customers? Waiting....... In 5 years time, do you really think Waymo will have paying customers and have gained regulatory approval? Hell no... Tesla at least realizes they can't get passed the regulatory hurdle. Keep driver at the wheel, provide a value, automate and refine.
    - SEJeff 8y ago
      Very much this. I see it as a waterfall vs agile approach when you use software development methodologies as a comparison. Tesla put out a minimum viable product, and is quickly iterating on it. It isn't the ivory tower dogmatic example of perfection, but it is really good, and is tons of fun. Waymo on the other hand, is trying to just skip putting their products seriously in the hands of users and are doing limited trials in limited mostly perfect driving conditions (like Phoenix, AZ). The best thing is that as much as people want to argue on the internet about "which is better", it is somewhat inevitable they'll both succeed in their own way. Waymo will eventually crack the nut for Level 5 autonomous driving with Lidar just like Tesla will crack the nut for their full self driving (defined as driving from the east to west coast without any involuntary disengagements) with machine vision. I actually (potentially incorrectly) suspect Tesla will win this war first as they simply have a multiple of any competition when it comes to amount of driving data. How many more hundreds of millions of miles has Tesla autopilot logged compared to Waymo? Reminder: Tesla is building ~5,000-6,000 cars per week and tends to sell them pretty well. Their data moat only continues to widen. Once they figure out the right models for really pulling it off, they'll make HUGE leaps with the data they have. Some nights, my Model 3 will upload 10G of data up to Tesla. Hopefully, it is from Shadow Pilot to train the fleet. TL;DNR: There is nothing stopping both Tesla AND Waymo from solving full self driving using competing technology and different approaches. It is an exciting time to be alive!~
obastani 8y ago
So did a lot of rocket companies, until SpaceX came along and revolutionized the market. As far as I see it, Tesla is building a state-of-the-art driver assist product, but the approach they are taking is unlikely to reach full autonomy for a very, very long time. Waymo, while in a much higher risk position, has the chance (however large or small) to completely revolutionize the way we commute.

by wil421 8y ago

FireBeyond 8y ago

> At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? What self driving product do they have? Elon's "Oh yeah, we will have full self driving coast to coast in [8 months]" is horseshit to the point of "How is he allowed to say this on an earnings call?" Other competitors, widely recognized to be ahead of Tesla estimate 5, more likely 10 YEARS. Coast to coast? Your Tesla will navigate a Pittsburgh winter storm on poor roads in Level 5 autonomy... this year? No. So then we're with "sophisticated driver assist". Actual products you can buy with sophisticated driver assist are sold by: Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Chrysler... My Jaguar has: adaptive cruise, four way sensors, lane assist, including ability to prevent you from changing lanes if a blind spot obstruction is noted, adaptive front lighting and high beam assist, driver condition monitoring (detects multiple 'drift', lane departure events or sub-optimal braking), traffic sign recognition and adaptive speed limiting, rear traffic monitoring including the ability to avoid, if possible, full auto parking, and so on.

zaroth 8y ago
My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan all around you and keep situational awareness of the drivers around you while the car keeps itself in lane. It’s a totally different experience.
- close04 8y ago
  > The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme Assuming you keep your hands on the wheel as required what exactly is the difference? I only found it to be a distraction as it takes me considerably longer to reengage (in less than expected situations) as the human driver after a period where I just let go a little.
  - zaroth 8y ago
    That’s your experience as a Tesla driver? I don’t have any “reengagement lag” as you might say. When I want to start steering the car again I just start steering. There is a slight resistance felt in the wheel if you turn past the autopilot without flipping the right stick up to explicitly disengage AP first.
  - eclipxe 8y ago
    There is a massive difference in the driving experience. How long did you try it for?
- mbreese 8y ago
  And my wife’s Acura will completely steer itself (with a much shorter list of features), but requires your hands on the wheel. It works without your hands, but it gets testy if you don’t move the wheel slightly every 15 seconds. It’s significantly nicer to drive long stretches with this system, but I can’t imagine doing it without your hands on the wheel. When the sensors fail (weather or poor lane markings), you need to be able to take over immediately. Granting too much autonomy to the system is just too risky (and the point of the article).
  - zaroth 8y ago
    Are you taking about LKAS? [1] Not trying to be rude, but that is nothing at all like driving with AutoPilot. [1] - https://youtu.be/iKWBdySgssE https://youtu.be/iKWBdySgssE
    - 8y ago
leesec 8y ago
How are you going to say Tesla doesn't have a product and then go on to list a bunch of worse products as if they are better? Tesla has effectively incorporated Lane Keep Assist/Automatic Cruise Control into a single product called Autopilot that has vastly better software than other similar products. Simply put, if other companies had a product that would have allowed for billions of miles to be driven hands free feet free, they would have it, but they do not, not even close. Tesla does.
- joshuamorton 8y ago
  >Tesla has effectively incorporated Lane Keep Assist/Automatic Cruise Control into a single product called Autopilot that has vastly better software than other similar products. Is it? This[1] implies that, contrary to what you say, most other manufacturers do offer equivalent features in equivalent luxury vehicles. Tesla might have gotten beaten many of them by a year or so, and might sell more Xs than Toyota sells high-trim Lexus's, but neither of those things really say anything about the quality of the driving technology. And from what I've seen, Tesla's isn't particularly spectacular. [1]: https://www.cars.com/articles/which-cars-have-self-driving-features-for-2018-1420699785509/ https://www.cars.com/articles/which-cars-have-self-driving-f...
- FireBeyond 8y ago
  Vastly better? I'm not sure the last time my car did an uncommanded lane change on a well painted road with good ambient light. Yet, I can find multiple videos of Teslas doing exactly that. I'm not sure the last time (actually I am - it has not) my car treated a roundabout with a shallow center median as "entirely optional, follow the circle or go straight over", but I can find multiple videos of Teslas doing that. The two cars I've driven that are modern (2017 and 2018 Audi and Jaguars) also didn't hit a big white pickup truck in broad daylight in parking mode, but I've seen Teslas doing that, too. So, how are we defining "bunch of worse products"? "Less advanced, but better tested"? If that's the case, I think I'll take that.
  - leesec 8y ago
    Weird, when I search "Jaguar self driving" or "Jaguar Hands Free" I don't find any real videos of it at all. Are you sure it's not Jaguar that doesn't have self driving? Do you actually drive your car hands free and feet free for more than 30 seconds ever?

mikestew 8y ago

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? I have a self-driving automotive product you can buy. It doesn't work as advertised, either. Calling a lamb's tail a leg doesn't make for a five-legged farm animal. This reminds me of the conversations about, say, phone authentication using facial identification. "Samsung had it before FaceID!" Yeah, I had one of those Samsung phones. It did not do what it said on the tin. So, yeah, Tesla has a product you can buy, but it is not a self-driving vehicle despite what they might tell you.

leesec 8y ago
What do you call it when a Tesla drives me 90% of the way to work where I don't do anything but observe? It's not full self driving but it definitely is driving it self and providing value.
- bombas 8y ago
  ^Exactly. I think Tesla's marketing is shit around this. Elon needs to shut the hell up on twitter as well. Stop coming at me with Waymo is 10 years ahead of Tesla... Ok great, are they shipping & delivering any value to paying customers? Waiting....... In 5 years time, do you really think Waymo will have paying customers and have gained regulatory approval? Hell no... Tesla at least realizes they can't get passed the regulatory hurdle. Keep driver at the wheel, provide a value, automate and refine.
  - SEJeff 8y ago
    Very much this. I see it as a waterfall vs agile approach when you use software development methodologies as a comparison. Tesla put out a minimum viable product, and is quickly iterating on it. It isn't the ivory tower dogmatic example of perfection, but it is really good, and is tons of fun. Waymo on the other hand, is trying to just skip putting their products seriously in the hands of users and are doing limited trials in limited mostly perfect driving conditions (like Phoenix, AZ). The best thing is that as much as people want to argue on the internet about "which is better", it is somewhat inevitable they'll both succeed in their own way. Waymo will eventually crack the nut for Level 5 autonomous driving with Lidar just like Tesla will crack the nut for their full self driving (defined as driving from the east to west coast without any involuntary disengagements) with machine vision. I actually (potentially incorrectly) suspect Tesla will win this war first as they simply have a multiple of any competition when it comes to amount of driving data. How many more hundreds of millions of miles has Tesla autopilot logged compared to Waymo? Reminder: Tesla is building ~5,000-6,000 cars per week and tends to sell them pretty well. Their data moat only continues to widen. Once they figure out the right models for really pulling it off, they'll make HUGE leaps with the data they have. Some nights, my Model 3 will upload 10G of data up to Tesla. Hopefully, it is from Shadow Pilot to train the fleet. TL;DNR: There is nothing stopping both Tesla AND Waymo from solving full self driving using competing technology and different approaches. It is an exciting time to be alive!~

obastani 8y ago

So did a lot of rocket companies, until SpaceX came along and revolutionized the market. As far as I see it, Tesla is building a state-of-the-art driver assist product, but the approach they are taking is unlikely to reach full autonomy for a very, very long time. Waymo, while in a much higher risk position, has the chance (however large or small) to completely revolutionize the way we commute.