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See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

• the8472 8y ago
  The problem with the drake equation is that we're not really working with means of normal distributions as estimates, we're working with wildly different, skewed distributions for each factor, due to uncertainties spanning orders of magnitude for some factors. Instead of multiplying point estimates you need to convolve the distributions, which yields quite different results. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf
  • bg4 8y ago
    Interesting, thanks for the link