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Physics says if I don’t have my own car I’ll have to wait for one. The rideshare could leave a ton in the parking lot but that negates all the projected cost sa

Physics says if I don’t have my own car I’ll have to wait for one. The rideshare could leave a ton in the parking lot but that negates all the projected cost savings from higher utilization.

ddingus 8y ago
In most cases, having your own car will mean driving it too. I have been asking people about this. Many will just build the wait into what they do, and will count on software minimizing that with predictive behavior. Personally, I have zero desire to own a self driving car. I could potentially own one with that option, but the expense will get in the way. Just not worth it. Younger people will just adapt, meaning longer term ownership trends will not be good. Except for classic, you drive cars. Demand and value will grow nicely as people maintain them. Frankly, they will have to be legislated off the road. Well off people will own, but that will be a minority case.
- jdsully 8y ago
  Most people like leaving crap in their car and having it ready at a moments notice. I definitely think people will want self driving cars - but as a feature in the car they buy. The exception will be those in the city where it’s a pain to find parking.
  - ddingus 8y ago
    And how much of the population is in city zones? I agree with you having it as a feature. People will want to own the car. When they no longer control the car, but make requests, that subtle difference will cause a lot of things to play out very differently, IMHO.
    - jdsully 8y ago
      Do you think Ford, GM, Toyota, etc will just give up and say Google owns the car market now? Nobody is going to have a monopoly on this technology. If there’s no monopoly then you want to sell as many cars as possible and that means personal ownership.
      - ddingus 8y ago
        Well, did Ford not just basically quit cars, but for one model? Watch GM do a similar thing. Yes, they want to sell and for the reason you gave. I am saying they will not do anywhere near as well with fully self deiving cars. The ownership incentives are very different.

Physics says if I don’t have my own car I’ll have to wait for one. The rideshare could leave a ton in the parking lot but that negates all the projected cost savings from higher utilization.

ddingus 8y ago

In most cases, having your own car will mean driving it too. I have been asking people about this. Many will just build the wait into what they do, and will count on software minimizing that with predictive behavior. Personally, I have zero desire to own a self driving car. I could potentially own one with that option, but the expense will get in the way. Just not worth it. Younger people will just adapt, meaning longer term ownership trends will not be good. Except for classic, you drive cars. Demand and value will grow nicely as people maintain them. Frankly, they will have to be legislated off the road. Well off people will own, but that will be a minority case.

jdsully 8y ago
Most people like leaving crap in their car and having it ready at a moments notice. I definitely think people will want self driving cars - but as a feature in the car they buy. The exception will be those in the city where it’s a pain to find parking.
- ddingus 8y ago
  And how much of the population is in city zones? I agree with you having it as a feature. People will want to own the car. When they no longer control the car, but make requests, that subtle difference will cause a lot of things to play out very differently, IMHO.
  - jdsully 8y ago
    Do you think Ford, GM, Toyota, etc will just give up and say Google owns the car market now? Nobody is going to have a monopoly on this technology. If there’s no monopoly then you want to sell as many cars as possible and that means personal ownership.
    - ddingus 8y ago
      Well, did Ford not just basically quit cars, but for one model? Watch GM do a similar thing. Yes, they want to sell and for the reason you gave. I am saying they will not do anywhere near as well with fully self deiving cars. The ownership incentives are very different.