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There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech. 1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people wo

There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech. 1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people working on it and they are using different strategies, but it is not clear how long it will take, which strategy is technically superior, which strategy is more economical, etc etc. There's a lot of very strong opinions floating around (LIDAR is essential! No, vision and lots of data! No, 3D maps or bust, etc etc). It is important to keep in mind that we don't know the future, the people busy inventing it don't know how things will play out and outside observers know even less. The tech industry is littered with strong opinions which have aged terribly. 2) Musks's first principles aside, Tesla was never going to do LIDAR. They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. If they had gone with LIDAR and started a research program like Uber, they would have started years after Google, with less data, far fewer resources and absolutely technical advantage. It is far, far more likely that this program would have bankrupted them than beat google. In essence, whether Musk's first-principles is real or a sales pitch doesn't matter. Tesla's choice was their current approach, or nothing at all.

Someone1234 8y ago
> They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. Can you explore that a little? We have consumer products that contain LIDAR already (e.g. Neato Vacuums). The sensors no longer cost thousands of dollars, and could supplement other types of inputs to provide a broader picture of the road.
- Gladdyu 8y ago
  Yes, but you can't install a LIDAR over a software update. They've been promising full self-driving mode and getting closer by updating the software - the owners that already have the current car won't be to thrilled if they get cut-off from the state-of-the-art in Tesla's self-driving tech.
  - FireBeyond 8y ago
    ... particularly since they were charged up to three or five thousand dollars more for Elon's "promise" that some day (apparently this year) it will be available...
- leesec 8y ago
  The LIDAR used for FSD will not be like the LIDAR in your vacuum. At the moment the LIDARS that car's would need are still several thousand if not tens of thousands.
- close04 8y ago
  All tech comes in different grades and specs. The LIDAR used on a vacuum cleaner might use the same basic principle but doesn't come close to the requirements of the auto industry and self driving tech.
- 05 8y ago
  Neatos don’t have a real ToF LiDAR in them - they use triangulation to estimate distance. Those don’t work well outside or at long ranges. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:995686/FULLTEXT01.pdf https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:995686/FULLTEXT0...
pbreit 8y ago
I don't have a huge problem with the supposed goalpost movement. I am wondering though if drivers need to keep a fairly close eye on things what the true benefit of self-driving is in near future.
- Retric 8y ago
  It’s more obvious is you break it into smaller jumps. Cruse control requires you to pay close attention etc, but you can avoid making a lot of minor speed corrections, which makes long drives less taxing. Adaptive cruse control takes this one step further again reducing cognitive load. Lane following might not seem like much, but represents a huge number of tiny course corrections. I could go on, but even if you can’t read a newspaper the reduction in stress and muscle fatigue really adds up.
  - sliken 8y ago
    Sure, question is, does that lower level of stress make it harder to pay attention enough to save your life when the 0.1% event happens?
    - Retric 8y ago
      First stress kills, so the heath benifits are meaningful. Second, these systems are adding redundancy. As both the system and human driver needs to fail which means someone that’s only paying attention 98% of the time can still cover for 49 out of 50 times the system fails. Current data suggests a net gain in safety which is likely to improve as these systems mature.
      - sliken 8y ago
        I agree, but the problem is if you are not controlling the throttle and not controlling the steering wheel.. what are you doing? I find it tedious, but not particularly hard to drive for 12 hours in a row. On road trips most people I travel with fall asleep within a few hours if they are not driving. Seems human nature to watch the car avoid 99 problems, and fall into a false sense of security and stop paying attention. Sleep, cell phone, talking to a passenger, or just day dreaming seems ever more likely the longer you are letting the car drive. It's 2 people so far that lethally broadsided an 18 wheeler with a tesla on autopilot? So an attentive human + FSD sounds great. Not sure humans are going to be able to stay attentive though. Sure at some point inattentive human + FSD will be safer than a stand alone human, but it doesn't seem like that's happened yet. Telsa seems a bit evasive with the safety data. Maybe it's because human with autopilot off (but safety braking on) is just as safe as human with autopilot on.
andrewtbham 8y ago
I completely agree with these points.... Also... if you bought full self driving you're going to get the new v3 hardware retrofit... that's what you paid for and it's going to be better... probably a lot better. (edit: removed link... just google it)
FireBeyond 8y ago
> Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. Except according to Elon Musk (whom I don't believe) - it had better, since he's promising that it will be available this year.

Someone1234 8y ago

> They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. Can you explore that a little? We have consumer products that contain LIDAR already (e.g. Neato Vacuums). The sensors no longer cost thousands of dollars, and could supplement other types of inputs to provide a broader picture of the road.

Gladdyu 8y ago
Yes, but you can't install a LIDAR over a software update. They've been promising full self-driving mode and getting closer by updating the software - the owners that already have the current car won't be to thrilled if they get cut-off from the state-of-the-art in Tesla's self-driving tech.
- FireBeyond 8y ago
  ... particularly since they were charged up to three or five thousand dollars more for Elon's "promise" that some day (apparently this year) it will be available...
leesec 8y ago
The LIDAR used for FSD will not be like the LIDAR in your vacuum. At the moment the LIDARS that car's would need are still several thousand if not tens of thousands.
close04 8y ago
All tech comes in different grades and specs. The LIDAR used on a vacuum cleaner might use the same basic principle but doesn't come close to the requirements of the auto industry and self driving tech.
05 8y ago
Neatos don’t have a real ToF LiDAR in them - they use triangulation to estimate distance. Those don’t work well outside or at long ranges. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:995686/FULLTEXT01.pdf https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:995686/FULLTEXT0...

pbreit 8y ago

I don't have a huge problem with the supposed goalpost movement. I am wondering though if drivers need to keep a fairly close eye on things what the true benefit of self-driving is in near future.

Retric 8y ago
It’s more obvious is you break it into smaller jumps. Cruse control requires you to pay close attention etc, but you can avoid making a lot of minor speed corrections, which makes long drives less taxing. Adaptive cruse control takes this one step further again reducing cognitive load. Lane following might not seem like much, but represents a huge number of tiny course corrections. I could go on, but even if you can’t read a newspaper the reduction in stress and muscle fatigue really adds up.
- sliken 8y ago
  Sure, question is, does that lower level of stress make it harder to pay attention enough to save your life when the 0.1% event happens?
  - Retric 8y ago
    First stress kills, so the heath benifits are meaningful. Second, these systems are adding redundancy. As both the system and human driver needs to fail which means someone that’s only paying attention 98% of the time can still cover for 49 out of 50 times the system fails. Current data suggests a net gain in safety which is likely to improve as these systems mature.
    - sliken 8y ago
      I agree, but the problem is if you are not controlling the throttle and not controlling the steering wheel.. what are you doing? I find it tedious, but not particularly hard to drive for 12 hours in a row. On road trips most people I travel with fall asleep within a few hours if they are not driving. Seems human nature to watch the car avoid 99 problems, and fall into a false sense of security and stop paying attention. Sleep, cell phone, talking to a passenger, or just day dreaming seems ever more likely the longer you are letting the car drive. It's 2 people so far that lethally broadsided an 18 wheeler with a tesla on autopilot? So an attentive human + FSD sounds great. Not sure humans are going to be able to stay attentive though. Sure at some point inattentive human + FSD will be safer than a stand alone human, but it doesn't seem like that's happened yet. Telsa seems a bit evasive with the safety data. Maybe it's because human with autopilot off (but safety braking on) is just as safe as human with autopilot on.

andrewtbham 8y ago

I completely agree with these points.... Also... if you bought full self driving you're going to get the new v3 hardware retrofit... that's what you paid for and it's going to be better... probably a lot better. (edit: removed link... just google it)

FireBeyond 8y ago

> Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. Except according to Elon Musk (whom I don't believe) - it had better, since he's promising that it will be available this year.