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People have a lot of opinions on what could have happened, but I would like to know why hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent investigating the southe

by ynniv 8y ago

People have a lot of opinions on what could have happened, but I would like to know why hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent investigating the southern arc and at no point has anyone even considered investigating its northern counterpart. Edit: ... and this post was flagged off the first 14 pages within an hour. Not "dead" per se, but clearly forgotten. Wouldn't want anyone to think too hard about these things.

tristanj 8y ago
It was considered and quickly ruled out. Look at the trajectory of the northern arc [1]. It passes directly over India, which is covered by Indian civilian and military ground radars. There are major airports along this flight path. MH370 did not appear on civilian radar and the Indian military also confirmed MH370 was not detected on military radar. The northern arc also directly passes through Kashmir, which is contested by India Pakistan and China. There were no reports of the plane passing through this area. To put it in the words of an Indian military pilot [2]: >“There is no way or the slightest possibility of our radars’ having missed the plane,” the Indian pilot said. “We do not have an open air policy. Any blip, the slightest, has to be given attention. Most of our radars are semi-automated. If there is any aircraft not identified by virtue of its registration or identification, there will be an instant reaction at our end.” From this, we can conclude one of 1) There is a multinational conspiracy concealing the true path of the plane 2) The immerstat data is falsified (fails occam's razor) or 3) Rule out the northern arc. [1] https://i1.wp.com/cache.emirates247.com/polopoly_fs/1.574328.1452549054!/image/image.jpg https://i1.wp.com/cache.emirates247.com/polopoly_fs/1.574328... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/experts-see-robust-radar-along-missing-jets-potential-path.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/experts-see-ro...
- ynniv 8y ago
  Yes, it was quickly ruled out. Was that the correct conclusion? How can we confidently say that the plane didn't evade radar? What about SIA68?
  - tristanj 8y ago
    They've already found debris matching MH370 washed up in the Indian ocean. Several of the debris are almost certainly from MH370. This is consistent with the theory that MH370 crashed in the Indian ocean. Shouldn't this immediately disprove the northern path theory? How does SIA68 fit into this?
    - ynniv 8y ago
      MH370 was near SIA68 when it disappeared, and SIA68 was near the northern arc when MH370 should have been there. It's possible that MH370 could have hid from casual radar by flying near SIA68 until it was in quieter airspace. That's almost irrelevant though. The cost of investigating the northern arc would be a hundred times less than what has been spent in the ocean.
      - tristanj 8y ago
        I don't understand. The SIA68 theory doesn't address the debris matching MH370 that washed up in the Indian ocean. Several of the debris are almost certainly from MH370. The debris had barnacles implying they spent at least a year in the sea.
        mark-r 8y ago
        Is the article incorrect then when it says the marine life found on the debris was inconsistent with the amount of time the plane has been gone?
        DuskStar 8y ago
        From the article: > By now, some 30 pieces have been found. Investigators assumed that after more than a year these would be covered in rich colonies of marine organisms, whose makeup would shed light on the path the pieces had taken through the ocean. To their surprise, they found none of them hosted organisms more than a couple of months old. That gives some plausibility to "people moved debris to the ocean later", though also to "marine growth is weird sometimes". It doesn't support the statement "we have evidence confirming that MH370 crashed into the ocean at approximately the time it disappeared".
netsharc 8y ago
Btw, it's probably flagged because it is some guy's unsupported ramblings presented as fact. He says someone rebooted the SDU, how does he know that someone actually did that? More likely the plane had a power cycle. He writes "when Inmarsat’s in-house scientists examined the data set, they realized that because the system wasn’t working properly, a residue of navigational information had leaked into the communications signal. It was this residue that allowed them to deduce—incorrectly, it turns out—where the plane had gone.". As far as I know Inmarsat figured out where the signal can come from due to the Doppler effect. What he wrote here is so technically ignorant that his credibility sank even further in my mind. Or maybe there really was "leakage" of data, I didn't want to google it because every stupid theory has backers on the Internet nowadays...

by ynniv 8y ago

tristanj 8y ago

It was considered and quickly ruled out. Look at the trajectory of the northern arc [1]. It passes directly over India, which is covered by Indian civilian and military ground radars. There are major airports along this flight path. MH370 did not appear on civilian radar and the Indian military also confirmed MH370 was not detected on military radar. The northern arc also directly passes through Kashmir, which is contested by India Pakistan and China. There were no reports of the plane passing through this area. To put it in the words of an Indian military pilot [2]: >“There is no way or the slightest possibility of our radars’ having missed the plane,” the Indian pilot said. “We do not have an open air policy. Any blip, the slightest, has to be given attention. Most of our radars are semi-automated. If there is any aircraft not identified by virtue of its registration or identification, there will be an instant reaction at our end.” From this, we can conclude one of 1) There is a multinational conspiracy concealing the true path of the plane 2) The immerstat data is falsified (fails occam's razor) or 3) Rule out the northern arc. [1] https://i1.wp.com/cache.emirates247.com/polopoly_fs/1.574328.1452549054!/image/image.jpg https://i1.wp.com/cache.emirates247.com/polopoly_fs/1.574328... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/experts-see-robust-radar-along-missing-jets-potential-path.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/experts-see-ro...

ynniv 8y ago
Yes, it was quickly ruled out. Was that the correct conclusion? How can we confidently say that the plane didn't evade radar? What about SIA68?
- tristanj 8y ago
  They've already found debris matching MH370 washed up in the Indian ocean. Several of the debris are almost certainly from MH370. This is consistent with the theory that MH370 crashed in the Indian ocean. Shouldn't this immediately disprove the northern path theory? How does SIA68 fit into this?
  - ynniv 8y ago
    MH370 was near SIA68 when it disappeared, and SIA68 was near the northern arc when MH370 should have been there. It's possible that MH370 could have hid from casual radar by flying near SIA68 until it was in quieter airspace. That's almost irrelevant though. The cost of investigating the northern arc would be a hundred times less than what has been spent in the ocean.
    - tristanj 8y ago
      I don't understand. The SIA68 theory doesn't address the debris matching MH370 that washed up in the Indian ocean. Several of the debris are almost certainly from MH370. The debris had barnacles implying they spent at least a year in the sea.
      - mark-r 8y ago
        Is the article incorrect then when it says the marine life found on the debris was inconsistent with the amount of time the plane has been gone?
      - DuskStar 8y ago
        From the article: > By now, some 30 pieces have been found. Investigators assumed that after more than a year these would be covered in rich colonies of marine organisms, whose makeup would shed light on the path the pieces had taken through the ocean. To their surprise, they found none of them hosted organisms more than a couple of months old. That gives some plausibility to "people moved debris to the ocean later", though also to "marine growth is weird sometimes". It doesn't support the statement "we have evidence confirming that MH370 crashed into the ocean at approximately the time it disappeared".

netsharc 8y ago

Btw, it's probably flagged because it is some guy's unsupported ramblings presented as fact. He says someone rebooted the SDU, how does he know that someone actually did that? More likely the plane had a power cycle. He writes "when Inmarsat’s in-house scientists examined the data set, they realized that because the system wasn’t working properly, a residue of navigational information had leaked into the communications signal. It was this residue that allowed them to deduce—incorrectly, it turns out—where the plane had gone.". As far as I know Inmarsat figured out where the signal can come from due to the Doppler effect. What he wrote here is so technically ignorant that his credibility sank even further in my mind. Or maybe there really was "leakage" of data, I didn't want to google it because every stupid theory has backers on the Internet nowadays...