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He is way early. Functional, competent self driving cars are not here yet. As we get closer, I think we will find few will want to own them. Why bother? The

He is way early. Functional, competent self driving cars are not here yet. As we get closer, I think we will find few will want to own them. Why bother? There are reasons, but those are few compared to those readons for cars we drive ourselves. We are likely to find, people will question the number of cars and share them a lot more. But that state is still a very long way off. The current slump in sales is both economic (way too many Americans buying used because new is not worth it, given tepid income) ...and a wait for EV cars to really arrive at price points worth buying new. Looks like private car ownership is on the wane, but not really, not yet. My .02

jdsully 8y ago
Physics says if I don’t have my own car I’ll have to wait for one. The rideshare could leave a ton in the parking lot but that negates all the projected cost savings from higher utilization.
- ddingus 8y ago
  In most cases, having your own car will mean driving it too. I have been asking people about this. Many will just build the wait into what they do, and will count on software minimizing that with predictive behavior. Personally, I have zero desire to own a self driving car. I could potentially own one with that option, but the expense will get in the way. Just not worth it. Younger people will just adapt, meaning longer term ownership trends will not be good. Except for classic, you drive cars. Demand and value will grow nicely as people maintain them. Frankly, they will have to be legislated off the road. Well off people will own, but that will be a minority case.
  - jdsully 8y ago
    Most people like leaving crap in their car and having it ready at a moments notice. I definitely think people will want self driving cars - but as a feature in the car they buy. The exception will be those in the city where it’s a pain to find parking.
    - ddingus 8y ago
      And how much of the population is in city zones? I agree with you having it as a feature. People will want to own the car. When they no longer control the car, but make requests, that subtle difference will cause a lot of things to play out very differently, IMHO.
      - jdsully 8y ago
        Do you think Ford, GM, Toyota, etc will just give up and say Google owns the car market now? Nobody is going to have a monopoly on this technology. If there’s no monopoly then you want to sell as many cars as possible and that means personal ownership.
        ddingus 8y ago
        Well, did Ford not just basically quit cars, but for one model? Watch GM do a similar thing. Yes, they want to sell and for the reason you gave. I am saying they will not do anywhere near as well with fully self deiving cars. The ownership incentives are very different.
jedberg 8y ago
> As we get closer, I think we will find few will want to own them. Why bother? Out of curiosity, do you have children? I know that my desire to own a vehicle has gone up considerably after having children. Right now in my car I have: - Diapers and wipes for the baby - A change of clothes for both kids - Car seats for both kids - A booster seat for use in restaurants - A stroller - Some towels (just used one yesterday to clean up a wet kid) - Snacks - DVDs for long rides - Spare jackets for both kids - Shopping bags Sure, I could carry all of that around in a bag, but that would be a huge heavy bag, and where would I put it when I got where I was going? To say nothing of the need for car seats. Even as the kids get older and I don't need all those supplies, I can still see the value in owning the car and having all their stuff in it, whatever that may be (sports equipment, musical instruments, etc.). I imagine I'll need my own car until they are at least teenagers.
- quickthrower2 8y ago
  Maybe there is some innovation that would help. Firstly pools of cars with car seats. Perhaps car seats that can do all of 2-8 years and are easy to adapt. Can come preloaded with wet wipes etc. Maybe the car is cleaned by robots after each lease. Sports and music stuff probably needs to be stored in the house but I guess most of the time that is more desirable anyway
  - jedberg 8y ago
    Maybe, but for example the value of the diapers and wipes isn't during transit, it's while I'm at my destination and have an emergency to respond to. Same with the change of clothes and the towels. The car would have to be waiting for me the whole time, or there would have to be a service that could bring me those things in a couple minutes.
- ddingus 8y ago
  Oh yes! I raised four, and right now, appear to be doing it again with my granddaughter. My youngest totally failed to launch, despite my best efforts. He and his girlfriend are a mess. So, yeah. I have a kid, after having 4. Owning a car is a big deal with kids, and you are spot on with why. I will counter with a lot of that stuff consolidating into carry bags and backpacks. Once I worked that out, getting people into and out of cars was not such a big deal. And in the end, a lot of that stuff goes with them. Set the norms for people to carry their stuff, manage it, and a lot of good effects come from that. Kids prep for the day, grab their bag and jump into a car. Happens all the time now. Now, your list: Diapers, wipes, clothes treats, other goodies go in the road bag. And that bag goes where the kids go. I won't put a DVD in a car. When they get older, they can have a phone. Otherwise, long rides are car game, interactive time. I did that and am very glad I did. We had a lot of fun on those, and the conversations! Awesome. One of our favorites was, "What is worth what?" and or "Nothing is free." Those chats were often wide ranging and sometimes profound. So, it's not quite the benefit you are putting here, not that I'm disagreeing. I am not. What I am saying is people can and will find options. With self-driving cars available to call, many will call them. If the cost makes sense, that is. It may not. In that case, owning cars will still be the norm. This time around, the only pain in the ass is the carseat and stroller. Those are nice to have in the car, but they also get moved more than one would think too. Who rides with who? As they pass 3, you don't need the stroller anymore, leaving the seat. Road or day bags work well, and my little one has her own backpack. She's got stuff she wants in there, and we make sure some necessary items are in there too. She will actually check her bag at 3 and very frequently gets it right when it's not properly stocked. Lastly, if the cars are self-driving, the ownership is less of an attraction. If they remain human driven, people will continue to own cars, with the slump right now being more largely related to the wait for EV and such making used cars a lot more attractive right now.

jdsully 8y ago

Physics says if I don’t have my own car I’ll have to wait for one. The rideshare could leave a ton in the parking lot but that negates all the projected cost savings from higher utilization.

ddingus 8y ago
In most cases, having your own car will mean driving it too. I have been asking people about this. Many will just build the wait into what they do, and will count on software minimizing that with predictive behavior. Personally, I have zero desire to own a self driving car. I could potentially own one with that option, but the expense will get in the way. Just not worth it. Younger people will just adapt, meaning longer term ownership trends will not be good. Except for classic, you drive cars. Demand and value will grow nicely as people maintain them. Frankly, they will have to be legislated off the road. Well off people will own, but that will be a minority case.
- jdsully 8y ago
  Most people like leaving crap in their car and having it ready at a moments notice. I definitely think people will want self driving cars - but as a feature in the car they buy. The exception will be those in the city where it’s a pain to find parking.
  - ddingus 8y ago
    And how much of the population is in city zones? I agree with you having it as a feature. People will want to own the car. When they no longer control the car, but make requests, that subtle difference will cause a lot of things to play out very differently, IMHO.
    - jdsully 8y ago
      Do you think Ford, GM, Toyota, etc will just give up and say Google owns the car market now? Nobody is going to have a monopoly on this technology. If there’s no monopoly then you want to sell as many cars as possible and that means personal ownership.
      - ddingus 8y ago
        Well, did Ford not just basically quit cars, but for one model? Watch GM do a similar thing. Yes, they want to sell and for the reason you gave. I am saying they will not do anywhere near as well with fully self deiving cars. The ownership incentives are very different.

jedberg 8y ago

> As we get closer, I think we will find few will want to own them. Why bother? Out of curiosity, do you have children? I know that my desire to own a vehicle has gone up considerably after having children. Right now in my car I have: - Diapers and wipes for the baby - A change of clothes for both kids - Car seats for both kids - A booster seat for use in restaurants - A stroller - Some towels (just used one yesterday to clean up a wet kid) - Snacks - DVDs for long rides - Spare jackets for both kids - Shopping bags Sure, I could carry all of that around in a bag, but that would be a huge heavy bag, and where would I put it when I got where I was going? To say nothing of the need for car seats. Even as the kids get older and I don't need all those supplies, I can still see the value in owning the car and having all their stuff in it, whatever that may be (sports equipment, musical instruments, etc.). I imagine I'll need my own car until they are at least teenagers.

quickthrower2 8y ago
Maybe there is some innovation that would help. Firstly pools of cars with car seats. Perhaps car seats that can do all of 2-8 years and are easy to adapt. Can come preloaded with wet wipes etc. Maybe the car is cleaned by robots after each lease. Sports and music stuff probably needs to be stored in the house but I guess most of the time that is more desirable anyway
- jedberg 8y ago
  Maybe, but for example the value of the diapers and wipes isn't during transit, it's while I'm at my destination and have an emergency to respond to. Same with the change of clothes and the towels. The car would have to be waiting for me the whole time, or there would have to be a service that could bring me those things in a couple minutes.
ddingus 8y ago
Oh yes! I raised four, and right now, appear to be doing it again with my granddaughter. My youngest totally failed to launch, despite my best efforts. He and his girlfriend are a mess. So, yeah. I have a kid, after having 4. Owning a car is a big deal with kids, and you are spot on with why. I will counter with a lot of that stuff consolidating into carry bags and backpacks. Once I worked that out, getting people into and out of cars was not such a big deal. And in the end, a lot of that stuff goes with them. Set the norms for people to carry their stuff, manage it, and a lot of good effects come from that. Kids prep for the day, grab their bag and jump into a car. Happens all the time now. Now, your list: Diapers, wipes, clothes treats, other goodies go in the road bag. And that bag goes where the kids go. I won't put a DVD in a car. When they get older, they can have a phone. Otherwise, long rides are car game, interactive time. I did that and am very glad I did. We had a lot of fun on those, and the conversations! Awesome. One of our favorites was, "What is worth what?" and or "Nothing is free." Those chats were often wide ranging and sometimes profound. So, it's not quite the benefit you are putting here, not that I'm disagreeing. I am not. What I am saying is people can and will find options. With self-driving cars available to call, many will call them. If the cost makes sense, that is. It may not. In that case, owning cars will still be the norm. This time around, the only pain in the ass is the carseat and stroller. Those are nice to have in the car, but they also get moved more than one would think too. Who rides with who? As they pass 3, you don't need the stroller anymore, leaving the seat. Road or day bags work well, and my little one has her own backpack. She's got stuff she wants in there, and we make sure some necessary items are in there too. She will actually check her bag at 3 and very frequently gets it right when it's not properly stocked. Lastly, if the cars are self-driving, the ownership is less of an attraction. If they remain human driven, people will continue to own cars, with the slump right now being more largely related to the wait for EV and such making used cars a lot more attractive right now.