On 4, being unable to predict the business cycle, I have heard this as conventional wisdom for a while, but the long term graphs look pretty regular: https://s

On 4, being unable to predict the business cycle, I have heard this as conventional wisdom for a while, but the long term graphs look pretty regular: https://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c98a9bb7f8b9ab732550300-750.jpg https://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c98a9bb7f8b9ab7325... Expansions have been lasting longer and recessions are staying short.. that implies you should invest after one and take your money out before the length of the last one and will tend to outperform leaving money in. Of course past performance doesn't guarantee future behavior, but all the points here are susceptible to that.