3 ms·

Ok let's run this scenario (please check my math here, I'm not positive I'm doing the probability right). Let's assume we're talking about a man, bc men are mor

Ok let's run this scenario (please check my math here, I'm not positive I'm doing the probability right). Let's assume we're talking about a man, bc men are more likely to be affected. Your lifetime risk of developing bowel cancer is 7% for males [1]. Bowel cancer risk is 17-30% higher if you eat a quarter pound of red meat per day [2]. But let's go ahead and assume someone does eat that much meat and use 30%. If you get bowel cancer, you have a 25% chance of dying [3]. That means... lifetime_risk_no_meat = 0.07 lifetime_risk_yes_meat = 0.07 + (0.07*.3) risk_of_death_given_cancer = 0.25 (lifetime_risk_yes_meat - lifetime_risk_no_meat) /risk_of_death_given_cancer ==> 0.084 So an 0.084% increase in risk of death if we use the most risky scenario available. [1]: Lifetime risk of bowel cancer https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/bowel-cancer/risk-factors#heading-Zero https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-... [2]: https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/bowel-cancer/risk-factors#heading-Two https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-... [3]: Persons-> Crude rate -> UK https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/bowel-cancer/mortality#heading-Zero https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...

gbear605 8y ago
I believe that your math is wrong because some of your numbers are percents and some are not, and because you divided instead of multiplying. If you are interested in the chance of death, you take the chance of cancer and multiply it by the chance of death given cancer. lifetime_risk_no_meat = 7% lifetime_risk_yes_meat = 7% + (7%30%) = 9.1% risk_of_death_given_cancer = 25% (lifetime_risk_yes_meat - lifetime_risk_no_meat) risk_of_death_given_cancer = 2.1%*25% = 0.00525 = 0.525% So by this math, eating a quarter pound of red meat a day causes men in this worse case scenario to die 0.525% more often, which is a sixteen times higher rate than your calculated value. Of course, that’s not how to actually do the relevant calculations, since (assuming no significant technology changes), everyone will eventually die. Thus you instead need to do calculations based on life expectancy, or better yet on QALY (quality adjusted life years), which adjusts for the quality of life that people live in addition to their age.

gbear605 8y ago

I believe that your math is wrong because some of your numbers are percents and some are not, and because you divided instead of multiplying. If you are interested in the chance of death, you take the chance of cancer and multiply it by the chance of death given cancer. lifetime_risk_no_meat = 7% lifetime_risk_yes_meat = 7% + (7%30%) = 9.1% risk_of_death_given_cancer = 25% (lifetime_risk_yes_meat - lifetime_risk_no_meat) risk_of_death_given_cancer = 2.1%*25% = 0.00525 = 0.525% So by this math, eating a quarter pound of red meat a day causes men in this worse case scenario to die 0.525% more often, which is a sixteen times higher rate than your calculated value. Of course, that’s not how to actually do the relevant calculations, since (assuming no significant technology changes), everyone will eventually die. Thus you instead need to do calculations based on life expectancy, or better yet on QALY (quality adjusted life years), which adjusts for the quality of life that people live in addition to their age.