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I don’t think those with the power to launch nuclear weapons care all that much about TV pictures. At least I hope they don’t. I would think the goal would be

by ugh 16y ago

I don’t think those with the power to launch nuclear weapons care all that much about TV pictures. At least I hope they don’t. I would think the goal would be to save as many humans as possible (while, admittedly, probably not willing to trade South Korean lives for North Korean lives) and toppling the regime in North Korea as quickly as possible. I don’t know whether that includes nuclear weapons. I would hope that nobody would be willing to launch a nuclear weapon just to kill as many North Koreans as possible.

philwelch 16y ago
We're still talking about the scenario when NK nukes SK, right? The "nuclear umbrella" doctrine, where nuclear deterrence is used to protect one's allies from nuclear attack, is well-established policy. The question smackay raised was whether public opinion would allow such a retaliation. The TV pictures take care of public opinion; the nuclear umbrella doctrine (and the need to demonstrate the West's will to enforce it) take care of the leadership.
- smackay 16y ago
  I am not sure the West has the will to enforce it - certainly judging by recent events in Afghanistan where there seems to be a limited amount of support for the USA. The deciding factor might be China's position on the matter. It provides quite a bit of support for North Korea and whether the USA would want to get dragged into a conflict that might escalate beyond the Korean peninsula remains to be seen. Having said that I don't think there is a significant risk of serious conflict since it is in China's long term interest to keep some form of low-level conflict with the USA or its allies going in the area, if only to further its territorial ambitions with the Spratly Islands, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands and other parts of the South China Sea which apparently has significant old reserves.

by ugh 16y ago

philwelch 16y ago

We're still talking about the scenario when NK nukes SK, right? The "nuclear umbrella" doctrine, where nuclear deterrence is used to protect one's allies from nuclear attack, is well-established policy. The question smackay raised was whether public opinion would allow such a retaliation. The TV pictures take care of public opinion; the nuclear umbrella doctrine (and the need to demonstrate the West's will to enforce it) take care of the leadership.

smackay 16y ago
I am not sure the West has the will to enforce it - certainly judging by recent events in Afghanistan where there seems to be a limited amount of support for the USA. The deciding factor might be China's position on the matter. It provides quite a bit of support for North Korea and whether the USA would want to get dragged into a conflict that might escalate beyond the Korean peninsula remains to be seen. Having said that I don't think there is a significant risk of serious conflict since it is in China's long term interest to keep some form of low-level conflict with the USA or its allies going in the area, if only to further its territorial ambitions with the Spratly Islands, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands and other parts of the South China Sea which apparently has significant old reserves.