4 ms·

I assume EU will mandate EV cars in a couple of decades. It wouldn't surprise me if california would do the same. An alternative scenario is synthetic fuels or

by phicoh 8y ago

I assume EU will mandate EV cars in a couple of decades. It wouldn't surprise me if california would do the same. An alternative scenario is synthetic fuels or hydrogen. But so far EV seems to most established solution.

martin_a 8y ago
From a German point of view I don't see this. Executives of automobile manufacturers are stuck so deep in the backs of our politicians that you can see them once they open their mouth. After everything that happened around VW and "Dieselgate" nothing happened or changed. It's just depressing to see how this crisis is dealt with by doing nothing because manufacturers threaten with loss of workforce in Wolfsburg etc.
- phicoh 8y ago
  What changed is that diesel is now 'toxic'. For quite a number of years, car manufactures tries to sell diesel as cool. And now that's gone. At the same time, the world outside Germany is not sitting still. If German manufactures do not make electric cars, companies in other countries will. There is no reason to expect German car companies to lead in EV cars. But once demand and infrastructure is there, they simply have to provide EV models in a large part of the world or risk becoming obsolete. So my estimate is that within one decade, most car companies will have quite a few EV models. Then there may even be an incentive to kill off support for car IC engines. I.e. maintaining one platform (for EV cars) is cheaper than maintaining one for EV and one for IC.
  - martin_a 8y ago
    I'm not really sure German manufacturers will still play the role they are playing now in a decade, once EVs really get going. All of their efforts feel rather half-serious which really wonders me because I think it shows that they do not really take this topic serious. Just like the Diesel scandal. With the budgets companies like Mercedes, BMW or VW have, all they can deliver is the "I got money to burn"-i8, an electric smart at ridiculous prices or some concept studies like the GLC-based electric vehicle that Mercedes is planning to build. (Didn't have a closer look into the eGolf, maybe that one is solid, but as VW did what it did, I think it's dead, at least for me.) So much money, so little innovation. I don't really get that. They all know how to build solid cars, but they fail, on purpose (?!?) so badly at EVs. The next car I will buy, or will have provided by my company, will surely be an electric one. Maybe a KIA, Hyundai, or Renault, not sure yet. But I don't see any "German car" really up for comparison with things like the Zoe, Niro, Kona.
    - perl4ever 8y ago
      "all they can deliver is the "I got money to burn"-i8" Well, I'm not saying it's a fantastic car, but given the existence of the i3, I think you are overstating your case.
      - martin_a 8y ago
        I had a look at the i3 and it's just so off from the rest of their models. I'd loved if they had just taken their series 2 station wagon model and put batteries in that. Just like Mercedes did (still do? thought it was discontinued) with their B class.
Spooky23 8y ago
No way. Auto dealers will lose alot of revenue to EV. Every media outlet in every major and minor metro areas is dependent on auto dealers, and their message will get out. Every local politician knows the local auto dealers. Automotive is like 5% of private sector employment. The backlash will be huge for anything threatening to kill the golden goose. Nobody has an interest to care about carbon emissions. EVs don't work for lots and lots of people as well. Half the people on my block don't have driveways. Millions of people live in apartments. Those folks are stuck as second class EV citizens. It will take a long time to build out charging infrastructure, and you'll have alot of resistance from citizens to EV mandates. My guess is that you'll see EVs slowly climb up and stall out from a growth POV in the US until you see disruptive fuel cost increases.
- oceanplexian 8y ago
  I love EVs, in fact, I own one. But I think we will be using internal combustion engines 100 years from now. We keep finding more and more oil, and more ways to extract oil, that we will probably be OK for centuries. And the energy density of Gasoline and Diesel is fantastic, and will probably remain superior to batteries for a long time.

by phicoh 8y ago

martin_a 8y ago

From a German point of view I don't see this. Executives of automobile manufacturers are stuck so deep in the backs of our politicians that you can see them once they open their mouth. After everything that happened around VW and "Dieselgate" nothing happened or changed. It's just depressing to see how this crisis is dealt with by doing nothing because manufacturers threaten with loss of workforce in Wolfsburg etc.

phicoh 8y ago
What changed is that diesel is now 'toxic'. For quite a number of years, car manufactures tries to sell diesel as cool. And now that's gone. At the same time, the world outside Germany is not sitting still. If German manufactures do not make electric cars, companies in other countries will. There is no reason to expect German car companies to lead in EV cars. But once demand and infrastructure is there, they simply have to provide EV models in a large part of the world or risk becoming obsolete. So my estimate is that within one decade, most car companies will have quite a few EV models. Then there may even be an incentive to kill off support for car IC engines. I.e. maintaining one platform (for EV cars) is cheaper than maintaining one for EV and one for IC.
- martin_a 8y ago
  I'm not really sure German manufacturers will still play the role they are playing now in a decade, once EVs really get going. All of their efforts feel rather half-serious which really wonders me because I think it shows that they do not really take this topic serious. Just like the Diesel scandal. With the budgets companies like Mercedes, BMW or VW have, all they can deliver is the "I got money to burn"-i8, an electric smart at ridiculous prices or some concept studies like the GLC-based electric vehicle that Mercedes is planning to build. (Didn't have a closer look into the eGolf, maybe that one is solid, but as VW did what it did, I think it's dead, at least for me.) So much money, so little innovation. I don't really get that. They all know how to build solid cars, but they fail, on purpose (?!?) so badly at EVs. The next car I will buy, or will have provided by my company, will surely be an electric one. Maybe a KIA, Hyundai, or Renault, not sure yet. But I don't see any "German car" really up for comparison with things like the Zoe, Niro, Kona.
  - perl4ever 8y ago
    "all they can deliver is the "I got money to burn"-i8" Well, I'm not saying it's a fantastic car, but given the existence of the i3, I think you are overstating your case.
    - martin_a 8y ago
      I had a look at the i3 and it's just so off from the rest of their models. I'd loved if they had just taken their series 2 station wagon model and put batteries in that. Just like Mercedes did (still do? thought it was discontinued) with their B class.

Spooky23 8y ago

No way. Auto dealers will lose alot of revenue to EV. Every media outlet in every major and minor metro areas is dependent on auto dealers, and their message will get out. Every local politician knows the local auto dealers. Automotive is like 5% of private sector employment. The backlash will be huge for anything threatening to kill the golden goose. Nobody has an interest to care about carbon emissions. EVs don't work for lots and lots of people as well. Half the people on my block don't have driveways. Millions of people live in apartments. Those folks are stuck as second class EV citizens. It will take a long time to build out charging infrastructure, and you'll have alot of resistance from citizens to EV mandates. My guess is that you'll see EVs slowly climb up and stall out from a growth POV in the US until you see disruptive fuel cost increases.

oceanplexian 8y ago
I love EVs, in fact, I own one. But I think we will be using internal combustion engines 100 years from now. We keep finding more and more oil, and more ways to extract oil, that we will probably be OK for centuries. And the energy density of Gasoline and Diesel is fantastic, and will probably remain superior to batteries for a long time.