4 ms·

You cannot compare a locally restricted war with the global disruption of the ecological, economical and social environment, which lies in front of us.

benj111 8y ago
Why not? Genuine question, seems like a reasonable proxy, though you could disagree about scale of destruction etc. Would you like to suggest a better comparison.
- blastbeat 8y ago
  Because the World War 1 allowed recovery. The war caused trauma, but basically everything proceeded like before after that. Climate change has the potential to induce a bifurcation, making it impossible to revert back to the world we know today. Think about the Neolithic Revolution, but backwards.
  - ryanwaggoner 8y ago
    What?? WWI was one of the biggest turning points in history. Virtually everything about global civilization for the last 100 years has been deeply influenced by that conflict. After WWI, nothing proceeded as it had before.
    - blastbeat 8y ago
      I agree, but population growth continued, technology advance continued, wealth accumulated. There was no necessity to doubt on the superiority of mankind (those doubts increased after WW2, facing nuclear annihilation). Now, in the worst case, climate change will lead to a massive population die-off on a global scale, due to starvation, drought and wars. And stall any progress in technology, wealth, society and culture, due to negative feedback loops, which are discovered gradually. This will finally crush the narrative of the superior man, which we all grew up with. I think the psychological effect of experiencing the limits of growth for the first time in modern history, is completely underrated. After WW1, people knew what mechanized slaughter is. After WW2, people realized the holocaust and the balance of terror. During climate change, people will experience the end of growth and expansion on a global scale, which formed the human mindset of the last 3000 years.
    - qubex 8y ago
      World War 1 (and 2) was a short sharp shock that was pretty highly localised geographically and represented no permanent change in global parameters. Global climate change is a total change in the rules.
      - ryanwaggoner 8y ago
        This is only true in terms of climate change, and I doubt even that part. WW1 and WW2 fundamentally transformed our populations, our institutions, our countries, our economies, how all the above relate to each other, etc.

benj111 8y ago

Why not? Genuine question, seems like a reasonable proxy, though you could disagree about scale of destruction etc. Would you like to suggest a better comparison.

blastbeat 8y ago
Because the World War 1 allowed recovery. The war caused trauma, but basically everything proceeded like before after that. Climate change has the potential to induce a bifurcation, making it impossible to revert back to the world we know today. Think about the Neolithic Revolution, but backwards.
- ryanwaggoner 8y ago
  What?? WWI was one of the biggest turning points in history. Virtually everything about global civilization for the last 100 years has been deeply influenced by that conflict. After WWI, nothing proceeded as it had before.
  - blastbeat 8y ago
    I agree, but population growth continued, technology advance continued, wealth accumulated. There was no necessity to doubt on the superiority of mankind (those doubts increased after WW2, facing nuclear annihilation). Now, in the worst case, climate change will lead to a massive population die-off on a global scale, due to starvation, drought and wars. And stall any progress in technology, wealth, society and culture, due to negative feedback loops, which are discovered gradually. This will finally crush the narrative of the superior man, which we all grew up with. I think the psychological effect of experiencing the limits of growth for the first time in modern history, is completely underrated. After WW1, people knew what mechanized slaughter is. After WW2, people realized the holocaust and the balance of terror. During climate change, people will experience the end of growth and expansion on a global scale, which formed the human mindset of the last 3000 years.
  - qubex 8y ago
    World War 1 (and 2) was a short sharp shock that was pretty highly localised geographically and represented no permanent change in global parameters. Global climate change is a total change in the rules.
    - ryanwaggoner 8y ago
      This is only true in terms of climate change, and I doubt even that part. WW1 and WW2 fundamentally transformed our populations, our institutions, our countries, our economies, how all the above relate to each other, etc.