11 ms·
if luck does not explain 100% of the variance on average more successful people will have better skills than those who are not. It is a pretty big bias to think
by arisAlexis 8y ago
if luck does not explain 100% of the variance on average more successful people will have better skills than those who are not. It is a pretty big bias to think in terms of 1 or 10 or units
- consz 8y agoAs someone who personally makes high seven figures and who's met dozens of people of 9, 10-figure net worth -- I think it's ridiculous that anyone thinks becoming phenomenally wealthy is not overwhelmingly determined by luck. None of the rich people I've met have any notable characteristics that explain their "success" -- although certainly, some have convinced themselves it was due to some quality of theirs that they could control (and not just that, for example, they were lucky to get into the right team, at the right firm, at the right time, etc.). I assume people who believe wealth and success of individuals can be explained by predictable qualities or behaviors of that person have simply never met a rich person in their life.
- arisAlexis 8y agohow can you be sure that you and me are not biased since the definition of bias is to belong to the losing group? (you are upper quadrant for sure but still)
- lionelw 8y agoThat is certainly not the definition of bias. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=define+bias https://duckduckgo.com/?q=define+bias And you don't believe a "winning group" would hold its own biases?
- arisAlexis 8y agowas a matter of speech and I am sure you understand my argument
- watwut 8y agoBetter skills in one specific thing does not imply better skills in another thing. For example, ability to sell well does not imply ability to create accurate philosophy about what makes people end up rich vs poor. Different skill.