4 ms·
It's <50%, but chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 292 million. I'd bet if you picked a promising company (say Series B+ on the breakout list) your likelih
by austenallred 8y ago
It's <50%, but chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 292 million.
I'd bet if you picked a promising company (say Series B+ on the breakout list) your likelihood of a positive outcomes is >=10%.
Not high, but very different than lottery tickets.
- meesles 8y agoYou'd be betting on the probability of outcomes of choosing startups with successful outcomes, you must see the absurdity! Regardless, at least a lottery's odds are fixed. For a startup not only do you have a direct impact on the outcome, but there's near-infinite number of internal and external factors that can make a company fail, or, very rarely, succeed. I think that's one of the big selling points on options: It's a lottery ticket but you are directly capable of affecting your odds. Theoretically if a group of 100 people all feel that way, they should be able to do some amazing things!
- dinedal 8y agoAlso, you can buy as many lottery tickets as you can afford - you only have so many shots at picking a promising company in your working days.
- dragonwriter 8y agoThose seem equivalent, just with a different limiting resource.
- roguecoder 8y agoEven at seed stage, if you're picking from the same group as Crunchbase is the 2008-2010 cohort had a 30% chance of an exit and a 1% chance of becoming a unicorn. 1 in 100 is much better odds than 1 in 292 million.