4 ms·
That's precisely right. Calculating EV of a lottery ticket is easy, because you know the odds exactly. The idea that a "smart person" can do the same for an ear
by xyzzyz 8y ago
That's precisely right. Calculating EV of a lottery ticket is easy, because you know the odds exactly. The idea that a "smart person" can do the same for an early-stage startup that's offering options to employees simply beggars belief.
- repsilat 8y agoEstimating the value at zero is no different. I don't know if options from my old job will ever be liquid and worth anything of note, but I wouldn't sell them for a penny.