4 ms·
It isn't really a matter of being "smart". Even investors, who have detailed financial models, decades of data for comparables, get preferences and often board
by roguecoder 8y ago
It isn't really a matter of being "smart". Even investors, who have detailed financial models, decades of data for comparables, get preferences and often board representation to protect their interests, aren't confidently going to be able to provide a probable value of the investment. It is certainly unreasonable to expect employees, who get no board representation and thus can be screwed over in any scenario short of an IPO, to do better than people who have this as their entire job.
- xyzzyz 8y agoThat's precisely right. Calculating EV of a lottery ticket is easy, because you know the odds exactly. The idea that a "smart person" can do the same for an early-stage startup that's offering options to employees simply beggars belief.
- repsilat 8y agoEstimating the value at zero is no different. I don't know if options from my old job will ever be liquid and worth anything of note, but I wouldn't sell them for a penny.