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> Mary Wallace, a real estate agent... said that in 20 years she has rarely seen anyone in their 30s who did not have family help or an inheritance for their do
by cflewis 8y ago
> Mary Wallace, a real estate agent... said that in 20 years she has rarely seen anyone in their 30s who did not have family help or an inheritance for their down payment.
This is the unwritten law of California first-time home ownership: you are waiting for your parents to downsize and cash in, or just to straight up die and inherit their house. You do not just get a job in CA and buy a home. The article also talks about the US in general, throwing around "six figures" as some indication of being financially safe. In CA, that is just not true.
I would not have a home without significant assistance from my parents. I can't imagine how it would be if I was saddled with large student loans as well (came from the UK where college education was cheaper) or had a job where the health insurance could leave me one bad situation away from bankruptcy.
Even if wealth distribution is possible, it comes with its own hurdles: early wealth distribution leads to questions about how elder care is going to get paid for, late wealth distribution leads to questions about how stunted the career and life development of the child is.
I think this is the new normal, and will be for generations past us, but I wonder what it will mean for G8 countries. I think step one is abandoning the idea that if you try hard you're going to live better than your parents. You might, you might not. It's not a given anymore.
- dfxm12 8y agoWhy is CA so expensive? Is it something intrinsic to the land (weather, natural features, etc.) or is it something more variable, like job & entertainment opportunity? If it's the latter (and I suspect it is), it is a solvable problem, at least for most G8 countries, since there is a lot of un(der)-developed areas out there. I would not have a home without significant assistance from my parents. I don't know your specific case, but on average, you could have bought a home without assistance if you wanted, just maybe not when & where you bought.
- cflewis 8y agoIt's the jobs. You want to work at Google, you work in CA. You want to work in movies, you work in CA. There are various environmental factors (like the weather) and economic factors (like locking in property taxes when you buy) that keep people in their homes, stunting inventory. Yeah, I _could_ buy a house somewhere else, just like I _could_ give up on a fulfilling career. But I don't think people are willing to spend the majority of their waking hours in a job they don't like so they can have a house, given the alternative of having a job they do and renting. Everything is a life choice, and home ownership is not be all and end all, but I think it seems very wrong that the dichotomy of career vs home-ownership is as harsh as it is.
- rcpt 8y agoIt's not the jobs. In New York you can get an apartment in Jackson Heights for $200k and take the F train to work. https://www.redfin.com/NY/Corona/112-50-Northern-Blvd-11368/unit-6B/home/113180232 https://www.redfin.com/NY/Corona/112-50-Northern-Blvd-11368/... In the Bay Area it's expensive near job centers but it's still expensive 40 miles away. The sprawling mess is too low density to sensibly cover with trains so people end up with insane highway commutes. California's problem is property taxes. Tax people fairly - not based on the time they joined the class of property owners - and our problems go away.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- dfxm12 8y agoIt's the jobs. You want to work at Google, you work in CA. You want to work in movies, you work in CA. This isn't true. I've known Googlers who worked in Ann Arbor, Pittsburgh and NYC. I've enjoyed many films made in Georgia. Places like NM, Georgia, Austin, etc. are enticing filming there because they know the industry can support more than just one hub in LA. Now filmmakers know they can work and play in Atlanta, Albuquerque or Austin, places cheaper than Hollywood. Places where you don't need family assistance for a down payment on a house. A Googler could do the same in Pittsburgh. I think it seems very wrong that the dichotomy of career vs home-ownership is as harsh as it is Is it? OK, I'll grant that it is if you have a singular mindset of "I must own a home right now and I can only have a fulfilling career bay area", but you aren't entitled to live and work in a specific place. And who cares? There's so much more to this world than that.
- badfrog 8y agoThe examples you cite are exceptions, not the rule. Most Google engineers still work in CA, and it's easier to get hired for a role at HQ because there are always openings for all kinds of positions. For the smaller offices, they might only be hiring infra or only hiring L6+, etc. For movies, think about what you'd do as a young actor trying to get a major role. Would you live in Atlanta where a handful of films are shot every year, or would you live in LA where hundreds of opportunities come up every month?
- burlesona 8y agoBecause the Boomers forbid housing construction and put in prop 13 to shelter themselves from any tax increase as housing cost skyrocketed. They created this mess.
- nitrogen 8y agoIf zoning and construction were sane I think something like prop13 would be a good thing. Nobody should be forced out of a home they could otherwise afford just because the taxes went up.
- dfxm12 8y agoThere are more specific ways to deal with that issue besides prop 13 though, like homestead exemptions.
- andrewbinstock 8y agoDefinitely not the Boomers that did Prop 13. Prop 13 was passed in 1978, when the oldest boomers were 32 and the youngest 14. Not many owned houses then. This was passed by voters of earlier generations. Look at the two leaders of the movement, Howard Jarvis (born 1903) and Paul Gann (born 1912). Most Boomers were opposed to it b/c they could easily foresee the cuts to social services and education that were coming.
- gok 8y agoTo answer your first question: widespread opposition to housing/development across the political spectrum.
- rcpt 8y agoBecause of Prop 13. http://projects.scpr.org/prop-13/stories/housing-shortage/ http://projects.scpr.org/prop-13/stories/housing-shortage/ has a good write up. Because land isn't taxed based on it's current value landowners have little incentive to develop their land in order to get the most out of it. They simply bank land as much as possible as it's the most surefire way to turn a profit. It's why we have golf courses* in city centers and dilapidated shacks* next to Google's global HQ. Additionally, prop 13 gives landowners every incentive to lobby for policies that restrict development in order to drive up prices instead of fighting for the right to build 4 story apartments on their property. Slashing property taxes always floods the market with speculators and destroys housing affordability. Look at Vancouver, or Malta, their housing shortages rival SF despite low wages and comparatively small economies. * https://www.planetizen.com/node/93284/la-country-clubs-taking-more-their-share-and-paying-less https://www.planetizen.com/node/93284/la-country-clubs-takin... * https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/15/google-campus-silicon-valley-farm-martinellis https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/15/google-ca...
- oh_hello 8y agoIt also forces individual home owners into a corner. Anecdotally, I have a friend who bought in the 90s for peanuts and now his house is easily worth more than a million dollars. He has specifically said something along the lines of "we would like to move to something that fits our family a little better, but it wouldn't be worth the tax bill."
- gedy 8y agoThat's nonsense, prices were ballooning in California before Prop 13, and was in response the great inflation in the 70s. Property taxes do go up in California, just not at the speculative price increases due to tiny interest rates and investors. If you want to find fault, blame interest rates and people paying the maximum monthly payment based on tiny interest rates, and ignoring the ridiculous house prices.
- munificent 8y agoThe nature of employment in the US has changed very rapidly in the past few decades. Agriculture and manufacturing jobs have evaporated, replaced by service jobs. Globalization means that any job that doesn't need to be performed inside the US will likely leave the US. What this means is that in the past, there used to be forces that encouraged jobs to be somewhat evenly spread across the country. Most medium-sized cities had a number of factories, small towns were surrounded by farms, etc. Now the only jobs are jobs that involve working with or for other people, so you see a rapid concentration in a smaller number of large metro areas. Unfortunately, cities cannot physically adapt as quickly as the economy has changed. The rapid change in housing prices — upwards in metro areas and downwards elsewhere — is basically a measure of how much the physical infrastructure is out of sync with today's needs. Personally, I hope we figure out a way reinvigorate and distribute jobs across medium-sized cities. It's very difficult for the poor any elderly to uproot, and the US has tons of space, so I think it's better for everyone if the jobs come to them instead of forcing them to come to the jobs.
- thatfrenchguy 8y ago> Globalization means that any job that doesn't need to be performed inside the US will likely leave the US. Sounds like over-rationalization to me. Tech jobs don’t need to be done in the US for obscene amounts of money, yet they are.
- sanderjd 8y ago> Tech jobs don’t need to be done in the US In theory, yep. In practice, lots of software work is basically an exercise in interpersonal collaboration logistics for which physical colocation is still the most common approach. I've long been hopeful that we'd break out of that model and achieve the geographic redistribution that the parent commenter is hopeful for, but that it hasn't happened yet makes me think there is something more to it than it seems.
- munificent 8y agoMany many aren't. One of the reasons I left EA was because half of my team was given the task of training a team of outsourced people to replace them. Yes, there are still plenty of programming jobs in the US, in large part because a key part of the job is translating human requirements into code. That means that knowing the language and culture are valuable assets. Also, English is the lingua franca of software, which helps.
- nostrademons 8y agoIt's a combination of the major metro areas (SF, LA, and SD) being boxed in by mountains, and of these areas supporting major globalized industries (tech, entertainment, and biotech/military, respectively) where per-employee revenue is high, productivity is high, and wages are correspondingly high. Fixed & limited housing supply + high incomes = very high house prices. Prop 13, as mentioned by other commenters, doesn't help. Everybody outside of one of these industry hubs always says "Well, why don't major companies just move to areas with lower cost of living, where they can pay their employees less for the same work and be more competitive?" It's never that simple. Flip that comment around and ask an employee in a low-paying industry in a low-paying hub "Well, why don't you just learn data science, get a job at Google or Facebook, and move to the Bay Area so you can partake in these $300-400K/year salaries too?" You'll probably get a response that mentions some combination of family & community roots; it being hard to develop tech skills without mentors and teachers; not fitting in with the political & cultural views of people in Silicon Valley; and difficulty convincing employers that you do in fact possess those skills in the face of stereotypes to the contrary. Now multiply those difficulties by 50,000 employees and you see why corporations don't do this. Companies in knowledge industries are webs of highly-specialized human capital, each of which often has their own family & community roots in the local area and is reluctant to uproot their life just because their employer wants to save a few bucks by moving their headquarters elsewhere.
- alleyshack 8y agoIANAL or a real estate person, but my understanding is that it's a combination of the following: 1) Laws passed in the 1970s that lock in a home's tax value unless/until it's sold, meaning anyone who owned a home in the 70s will never, ever want to sell because their taxes will skyrocket from their fixed 70's values; 2) NIMBYs forbidding the construction of new housing, especially any high-density housing, meaning an area that's massively grown in population has not significantly grown in housing availability; 3) Tech companies insisting on building huge campuses here, attracting more and more people, who use their tech salaries to snap up the extremely limited housing, leading to tech companies needing to pay higher salaries to attract new employees, leading to those higher salaries being used to outbid others on houses, leading to tech companies needing to pay higher salaries... When we rented our last house, the real estate agent handling the rental asked why we, a Bay Area-salaried DINK couple, weren't buying. We laughed, because the down payment alone on the house we were renting - a dinky, dingy two-bedroom from the 60s which hadn't been significantly upgraded or maintained since - would have been close to our combined yearly income, never mind the taxes and mortgage payments. And that was for one of the crappiest houses in the neighborhood, not one we'd actually consider buying.
- throwaway-1283 8y agoIt's not too complicated - most big cities in CA have simply not built enough housing to keep up with population growth. Mass transit in/out of urban centers like SF/LA are very underdeveloped, so it makes it really difficult to live in a cheaper area outside of the city and bear the commute everyday.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- anth_anm 8y agoStupid laws don't help. Not re-evaluating property values until sale. NIMBY zoning laws everywhere.
- roguecoder 8y agoCA has expensive areas because Prop 13 means young people pay much higher property taxes than people who have owned forever and corporations pay practically nothing as long as they never rennovate. And you can't fix it without convincing people to vote to raise their own taxes, so we're basically screwed forever. Plus local control means communities can create jobs without building housing to support them, increasing emissions, clogging roads and forcing out everyone who wasn't already rich in the 90s. Move literally anywhere else if you can.
- mistrial9 8y agocash purchases/wealth management have rushed in from around the globe to secure homes as an investment, meanwhile few want to leave, and huge, huge industry as started bringing highly paid young people. Similar story in the Seattle area..
- lotsofpulp 8y agoIt has desireable weather, beaches, mountains, deserts, forests, national parks, fresh produce, industries, higher education system, decent laws for worker protection, so it’s a pretty good piece of land.
- imichael 8y agoI was told to assume $350/square foot for new construction here in the East Bay by a design/build firm I contacted recently. So a typical 2000 sq. ft. home is $700K just for design, construction, and permits, plus $300K for land if you can find it. So it seems more like localized inflation to me. Architects and tradespeople need to pay to live here too. Plus requirements due to seismic and fire hazards, insulation requirements, etc. add to costs. Now solar panels will be required as well. IMO prop 13 worked out really badly but it isn't the main cause of the problem, just one more giant expense for the new homeowner on top of everything else.
- okmokmz 8y agoSounds nearly identical to my experience buying a home in Seattle
- ryanmarsh 8y agoA few years ago I had a few steady clients in DC and so I kept an apartment there. The wife and kids would fly up for a few weeks at a time and enjoy the city. The wife fell in love with DC and wanted to move so we started looking at houses. We met many of the families renting or selling the houses (normally you don't meet the owners when buying but whatever). We could not figure out how the owners were able to buy these homes based upon our estimation of their combined household income based upon their descriptions of their jobs and where they worked. After some time grappling with why we couldn't afford the homes and they could, a real estate agent told us "everyone here has help from their parents, everyone". To be honest it really pisses me off because I feel like I'm crushing it in my business (blood, sweat & tears) but I can't buy a house in DC because I don't have wealthy parents.
- softawre 8y agoThere must be advantages that you had that others did not. My advice is to be happy for the advantages that you did have, and work hard to make it so that your children "have wealthy parents".
- throwawaytoday5 8y agoYup, instead of fighting inequality let's just have the rich get richer. It's for the best you see.
- ip26 8y agoI think this is the new normal, and will be for generations past us, but I wonder what it will mean for G8 countries I don't think you can generalize San Francisco to the entirety of the G8. Even in the US, it's not like that in many places.
- weberc2 8y agoDefinitely not in the US, 6 figures is an upper middle class income.
- mnm1 8y agoThe idea that hard work leads to riches is ridiculous bullshit propagated by the rich who do no work and get rich off the hard work of others. It's beyond stupid, yet ingrained in our culture from the puritan days. It serves to keep people down while making them work for others' enrichment. We need to get rid of diseased thinking like this from our culture. Most rich people are rich because they were born into the upper class and many have never worked a day in their lives. Plenty of poor people and middle class people work really hard at their jobs with zero chance of becoming rich. Zero. Slackers abound in all classes. There is no correlation between hard work and good outcomes. That's just ridiculous. If there was, someone putting in hard work at McDonald's should be rich when they retire. The only rich thing about this is the joke played on people that believe this stupid puritan bullshit.
- masonic 8y agoThis is the unwritten law of California first-time home ownership That's a cop out. I bought my first home (2 br 2 ba condo) in Mountain View at age 25 with no assistance whatsoever, and at that point was still making well under 100K. I just prioritized accordingly. To say that's the practice now is one thing, but 20 years ago? Hogwash... especially given the 2001 and 2009 drops.