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> The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no retur

> The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.

IgorPartola 8y ago
Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.
- pedrocr 8y ago
  I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
  - IgorPartola 8y ago
    Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
    - pedrocr 8y ago
      The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.
    - xbmcuser 8y ago
      With federal and state incentives the price drops below $30k for California which is Tesla's biggest market so far. People have also been willing to pay 5-10k more for Tesla than their previous cars. So Tesla just needs to stay ahead of the demand at each price point. It's not like people pay for their cars in one go they pay in bank installments. And the $150~250 savings in gas and servicing costs makes the monthly cost of ownership of $25k Camry and $35k Tesla the same over 5years. With Tesla ownership being cheaper after 5years.
clouddrover 8y ago
> If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Why? They'll just make EVs. They already produce multiple drivetrains. An EV drivetrain is just another one. Countries and cities are legislating against ICE cars so all car manufacturers need produce battery electric or hydrogen fuel-cell cars. As they transition to EVs they'll still sell ICE cars which are cheaper to buy, faster to fuel, and have better range.
- pedrocr 8y ago
  > They'll just make EVs I wish they would, but they're lagging way behind. Developing a good EV drivetrain, and particularly a good battery is not trivial and so far no one is matching Tesla. Hyundai has some reasonable models now and Renault/Nissan have had some basic models out for a while. Nothing compares to Tesla yet so if I was Mercedes/BMW/Audi/etc I'd be very worried right now.
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    > Nothing compares to Tesla yet Volkswagen is starting their push into EVs now. The Porsche Taycan uses 350 kW chargers to charge faster than Teslas. I'm sure 350 kW chargers are on Tesla's roadmap but Volkswagen got there first: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/porsche-taycan-pitch-this-car-charges-fast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/porsche-t... Volkswagen's MEB EV platform will be used across four VW brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT) to deliver 27 different EV models by 2022: https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-electric-car-pla-1829257860 https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-... How many models will Tesla have available by 2022? VW is also looking to license the MEB platform to other manufacturers (like Ford): https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-wants-other-automakers-to-use-its-meb-electr-1832269531 https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-wants-other-automakers-to-us... I think Volkswagen will be the EV leader in a few years. It'll be interesting to see if this helps them get ahead of Toyota to become the world's biggest car company.
    - pedrocr 8y ago
      So VW is ahead of Tesla because they've made a bunch of announcements of things they may ship in the future? It's all vaporware until you actually ship. They didn't "get there first" on 350kW chargers when there's not a single car on sale that can use them. They're making a bunch of announcements and maybe they'll do well, I hope they do, but they're still quite a bit behind Tesla.

IgorPartola 8y ago

Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.

pedrocr 8y ago
I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
- IgorPartola 8y ago
  Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.
  - xbmcuser 8y ago
    With federal and state incentives the price drops below $30k for California which is Tesla's biggest market so far. People have also been willing to pay 5-10k more for Tesla than their previous cars. So Tesla just needs to stay ahead of the demand at each price point. It's not like people pay for their cars in one go they pay in bank installments. And the $150~250 savings in gas and servicing costs makes the monthly cost of ownership of $25k Camry and $35k Tesla the same over 5years. With Tesla ownership being cheaper after 5years.

clouddrover 8y ago

> If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Why? They'll just make EVs. They already produce multiple drivetrains. An EV drivetrain is just another one. Countries and cities are legislating against ICE cars so all car manufacturers need produce battery electric or hydrogen fuel-cell cars. As they transition to EVs they'll still sell ICE cars which are cheaper to buy, faster to fuel, and have better range.

pedrocr 8y ago
> They'll just make EVs I wish they would, but they're lagging way behind. Developing a good EV drivetrain, and particularly a good battery is not trivial and so far no one is matching Tesla. Hyundai has some reasonable models now and Renault/Nissan have had some basic models out for a while. Nothing compares to Tesla yet so if I was Mercedes/BMW/Audi/etc I'd be very worried right now.
- clouddrover 8y ago
  > Nothing compares to Tesla yet Volkswagen is starting their push into EVs now. The Porsche Taycan uses 350 kW chargers to charge faster than Teslas. I'm sure 350 kW chargers are on Tesla's roadmap but Volkswagen got there first: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/porsche-taycan-pitch-this-car-charges-fast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/porsche-t... Volkswagen's MEB EV platform will be used across four VW brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT) to deliver 27 different EV models by 2022: https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-electric-car-pla-1829257860 https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-... How many models will Tesla have available by 2022? VW is also looking to license the MEB platform to other manufacturers (like Ford): https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-wants-other-automakers-to-use-its-meb-electr-1832269531 https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-wants-other-automakers-to-us... I think Volkswagen will be the EV leader in a few years. It'll be interesting to see if this helps them get ahead of Toyota to become the world's biggest car company.
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    So VW is ahead of Tesla because they've made a bunch of announcements of things they may ship in the future? It's all vaporware until you actually ship. They didn't "get there first" on 350kW chargers when there's not a single car on sale that can use them. They're making a bunch of announcements and maybe they'll do well, I hope they do, but they're still quite a bit behind Tesla.