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The commercial crew missions by both Boeing and SpaceX are new and interesting for a number of reasons: - This will be one of the first vehicles developed by a

The commercial crew missions by both Boeing and SpaceX are new and interesting for a number of reasons: - This will be one of the first vehicles developed by a private entity to launch people into space, rather than a nation. That represents a huge step "down" the ladder of who has access to space. First, it's only nations. Later, it's large companies and entities. Down the line a little bit medium-sized companies will have access to space and wealthy individuals. Then we'll get down to small companies and fairly well-off individuals. Finally, we'll reach a point where everyone can afford to make trips to or through space. This is a huge first step on the ladder. - The first stage of this vehicle was a booster that autonomously landed itself on a drone-ship, allowing it to be recovered and refurbished quickly and cheaply. Re-use of this first stage has the potential to drastically lower the cost to get humans (and stuff) into space. SpaceX has already pretty radically altered the launch provider scene by causing all players to lower costs across the board. And they can do that while maintaining very healthy margins if they get re-use right. Eventually, as other competitors (like Blue Origin) enter the market with re-usable launchers the price will fall further toward the new marginal cost, which is drastically lower. Both of these things have the power to be the first steps into a world where there's a radically expanded access to space for people and companies. All this is happening at the same time that there are a number of other exciting developments in the space industry (NASA planning to start the Lunar Gateway; SpaceX thinking about how to plan to colonize mars; Bigelow planning to launch commercial space stations; Blue Origin about to enter the scene with a very exciting new launch vehicle), it feels (to me, anyway) like we're on the cusp of another big leap forward.

baxtr 8y ago
Isn't your first point the natural development of things? As example: Which tank or fighter jet is NOT produced by a private entity today?
- ncallaway 8y ago
  I think it is the natural development of things! Just because something is a natural development doesn't mean we don't get to be excited when it happens. I think airplanes becoming a mode of mass transit were a natural development. It probably seemed like a pretty exciting development as that transition was happening. Similarly, once you have computers it seems natural to develop a global interconnected network of them. I was pretty excited when that was taking off! Also, just because the ordering is natural doesn't mean the timing is natural. We've expected these kinds of developments to happen in space for a long time. But we didn't know when they would happen. It was thought that this change might happen in the 70's or 80's. Others thought it might be as far off as 2040 or 2050. The fact that we're seeing some real tangible evidence of progress _now_ is super exciting.
isostatic 8y ago
It's a step, but not a first step - it's the second step along the nations/large/medium/small/people road Nor have they actually put anyone in space. The first stage landing is great, but again it's not new -- SpaceX have been doing this for a few years now. Last year's Falcon Heavy, especially the two rockets landing simultaneously on live tv, felt very futuristic. This isn't anywhere near as impressive as that from a "wow" perspective . The MaxQ abort test probably will be, especially if live-streamed. Scientifically, in the last 10 years we've landed on comets, brought bits of asteroids back to earth, driven a rover on an asteroid, landed on the far side of the moon, explored rocks billions of miles away. Any 'new commercial space age' started at least 7 years ago when spacex started being paid for these types of launches - a commercially developed rocket being used for commercial purposes, but companies have had access to space for decades - everytime I point a BGAN at the sky to get communications in the desert I'm using a private company's infrastructure. If you're just talking about a new crewed space exploration age, SpaceX has immense promise, but that's all it is - promise. Once it is delivering people to orbit, which a 50 year old technology currently does, and hopefully progresses further, then that's great. But this is just another minor step on the road. If America was still launching people to the ISS on Apollo, and a Chinese company did a test flight to the ISS using SpaceX technology, I very much doubt there would be as much excitement as there is for this launch. If dearMoon puts private people round the moon, the first people to leave LEO for 50 years, I'll be ecstatic. But I'm also cautious -- SpaceX announced a crewed lunar flyby for launch in 2018.
- avmich 8y ago
  That's in a large part subjective. For some until we have truly groundbreaking physics with applications which allow doing something considered strictly impossible with previous science, it's not worthy of consideration. For others, just watching slowly unrolling results of decades of development - in electronics (hardware on board of Falcons), computers (organization of that hardware into bigger complex structures, software), organization of enterprises (venture capitalism able to support risky ventures, accumulation of wealth to individuals, ability to optimize for non-immediate or non-financial goals, cooperation with government), methods of material tuning (heat shield, tank bodies, engine) is demonstration enough of the progress being made. We can easily, within few years forget how hard is a particular achievement. Remember how fast Apollo flights started to be considered boring. Or we may turn to those who work on complex problems as we speak, imagine how hard would it be for ourselves doing that and appreciate and honor actual work which leads to these demonstrations. The choice is definitely ours to make.

baxtr 8y ago

Isn't your first point the natural development of things? As example: Which tank or fighter jet is NOT produced by a private entity today?

ncallaway 8y ago
I think it is the natural development of things! Just because something is a natural development doesn't mean we don't get to be excited when it happens. I think airplanes becoming a mode of mass transit were a natural development. It probably seemed like a pretty exciting development as that transition was happening. Similarly, once you have computers it seems natural to develop a global interconnected network of them. I was pretty excited when that was taking off! Also, just because the ordering is natural doesn't mean the timing is natural. We've expected these kinds of developments to happen in space for a long time. But we didn't know when they would happen. It was thought that this change might happen in the 70's or 80's. Others thought it might be as far off as 2040 or 2050. The fact that we're seeing some real tangible evidence of progress _now_ is super exciting.

isostatic 8y ago

It's a step, but not a first step - it's the second step along the nations/large/medium/small/people road Nor have they actually put anyone in space. The first stage landing is great, but again it's not new -- SpaceX have been doing this for a few years now. Last year's Falcon Heavy, especially the two rockets landing simultaneously on live tv, felt very futuristic. This isn't anywhere near as impressive as that from a "wow" perspective . The MaxQ abort test probably will be, especially if live-streamed. Scientifically, in the last 10 years we've landed on comets, brought bits of asteroids back to earth, driven a rover on an asteroid, landed on the far side of the moon, explored rocks billions of miles away. Any 'new commercial space age' started at least 7 years ago when spacex started being paid for these types of launches - a commercially developed rocket being used for commercial purposes, but companies have had access to space for decades - everytime I point a BGAN at the sky to get communications in the desert I'm using a private company's infrastructure. If you're just talking about a new crewed space exploration age, SpaceX has immense promise, but that's all it is - promise. Once it is delivering people to orbit, which a 50 year old technology currently does, and hopefully progresses further, then that's great. But this is just another minor step on the road. If America was still launching people to the ISS on Apollo, and a Chinese company did a test flight to the ISS using SpaceX technology, I very much doubt there would be as much excitement as there is for this launch. If dearMoon puts private people round the moon, the first people to leave LEO for 50 years, I'll be ecstatic. But I'm also cautious -- SpaceX announced a crewed lunar flyby for launch in 2018.

avmich 8y ago
That's in a large part subjective. For some until we have truly groundbreaking physics with applications which allow doing something considered strictly impossible with previous science, it's not worthy of consideration. For others, just watching slowly unrolling results of decades of development - in electronics (hardware on board of Falcons), computers (organization of that hardware into bigger complex structures, software), organization of enterprises (venture capitalism able to support risky ventures, accumulation of wealth to individuals, ability to optimize for non-immediate or non-financial goals, cooperation with government), methods of material tuning (heat shield, tank bodies, engine) is demonstration enough of the progress being made. We can easily, within few years forget how hard is a particular achievement. Remember how fast Apollo flights started to be considered boring. Or we may turn to those who work on complex problems as we speak, imagine how hard would it be for ourselves doing that and appreciate and honor actual work which leads to these demonstrations. The choice is definitely ours to make.