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I disagree on the grounds that it already happened. Perhaps survivor bias is obscuring the fact that Teslas alone have already driven roughly billion miles on a

I disagree on the grounds that it already happened. Perhaps survivor bias is obscuring the fact that Teslas alone have already driven roughly billion miles on autopilot. Perhaps we don't hear about those because they are uneventful. https://hcai.mit.edu/tesla-autopilot-miles https://hcai.mit.edu/tesla-autopilot-miles Yes there will be bugs--all software will have bugs--and they will decline over time. Meanwhile, the accident rate of autopilot is probably better than human drivers. https://electrek.co/2018/10/04/tesla-first-vehicle-safety-report-media-coverage-crashes/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/04/tesla-first-vehicle-safety-re...

sverige 8y ago
Fair enough, though I'm more concerned about the claims for fully autonomous vehicles without driver controls. How many times in those billion miles did a human driver intervene? Or rather, would it have been two billion miles on autopilot if the human driver had not had to take control?
- CamperBob2 8y ago
  Key point is that the autopilot will get better over time, while the humans will not. This is one of those questions that is best answered by looking at the first derivative rather than the quantity in question.
Judgmentality 8y ago
The numbers for autopilot are a lot more complicated than that, and you cannot claim it is statistically safer based on the data we have. But if Tesla did have data showing autopilot is safer, I'm sure they'd be ecstatic to share it with the public. Instead they're burying the data and it can only be obtained after years of legal battles. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t...
darkpuma 8y ago
I've driven several thousand miles with no hands, only my knee. Of course that number is deceptive because it doesn't tell you how frequently I intervened with my hands.
TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
This isn’t a bug. Will crash in to stationary object at high speed is and inentional design decision. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a feature, but it’s certainly not a bug in the traditional, or common, usage of the term.

sverige 8y ago

Fair enough, though I'm more concerned about the claims for fully autonomous vehicles without driver controls. How many times in those billion miles did a human driver intervene? Or rather, would it have been two billion miles on autopilot if the human driver had not had to take control?

CamperBob2 8y ago
Key point is that the autopilot will get better over time, while the humans will not. This is one of those questions that is best answered by looking at the first derivative rather than the quantity in question.

Judgmentality 8y ago

The numbers for autopilot are a lot more complicated than that, and you cannot claim it is statistically safer based on the data we have. But if Tesla did have data showing autopilot is safer, I'm sure they'd be ecstatic to share it with the public. Instead they're burying the data and it can only be obtained after years of legal battles. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t...

darkpuma 8y ago

I've driven several thousand miles with no hands, only my knee. Of course that number is deceptive because it doesn't tell you how frequently I intervened with my hands.

TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago

This isn’t a bug. Will crash in to stationary object at high speed is and inentional design decision. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a feature, but it’s certainly not a bug in the traditional, or common, usage of the term.