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- Self-driving cars will still not be commonplace - Moore's law is already dead, but in 10 years the implications of that will be fully realized - Global warm

- Self-driving cars will still not be commonplace - Moore's law is already dead, but in 10 years the implications of that will be fully realized - Global warming won't be curtailed, rich countries will learn to cope with extreme weather patterns, people from poor countries will emigrate - Cancer treatment will improve dramatically for a large variety of relatively niche cancers, but there still won't be a common cure - Humans will still not go to Mars - Soft AI will become prevalent for many low-level automation tasks, but general AI will stay in science fiction - there will be significant headway made in resolving general relativity and quantum mechanics, likely by finding more situations where they disagree but not resolving those discrepancies - We'll find exoplanets likely suitable for life, but too far away to reach them. - Fusion power will just be "10 years away"

speedplane 8y ago
More 10 year predictions: - China's chip industry will be fully caught up to the U.S.'s, Intel chips will still be the best, but only by a few percentage points and won't be economical at a large scale. - Building custom ASICs will be far more common, and will be an important way of improving performance, as well as differentiation in the market (e.g., Adobe will produce their Photoshop chip). - AI will get very good at analyzing PDFs and HTML tables. There will be apps that you can give access to your email that will be able to make very detailed itemized reports of your spending habits, and make recommendations on how to save money or get more for it. - Dominant forms of trust will form on the internet. I am inclined to think that traditional media will take up this role, but it's possible that others will fill this space too. - Even though humans will not go to Mars in 10 years, there will be a credible plan to put humans there (possibly taking another 10 years). - Probes to Titan will be launched, and credible plans to land something on the moon will be well underway. - Genomics in criminal law continues it's rapid growth, making unsolved rape cases a thing of the past. - China's rapid growth in creating patents starts causing internal issues; they face their own first internal patent war, causing significant internal economic issues, forcing them to re-evaluate the value they ascribe to patents.

speedplane 8y ago

More 10 year predictions: - China's chip industry will be fully caught up to the U.S.'s, Intel chips will still be the best, but only by a few percentage points and won't be economical at a large scale. - Building custom ASICs will be far more common, and will be an important way of improving performance, as well as differentiation in the market (e.g., Adobe will produce their Photoshop chip). - AI will get very good at analyzing PDFs and HTML tables. There will be apps that you can give access to your email that will be able to make very detailed itemized reports of your spending habits, and make recommendations on how to save money or get more for it. - Dominant forms of trust will form on the internet. I am inclined to think that traditional media will take up this role, but it's possible that others will fill this space too. - Even though humans will not go to Mars in 10 years, there will be a credible plan to put humans there (possibly taking another 10 years). - Probes to Titan will be launched, and credible plans to land something on the moon will be well underway. - Genomics in criminal law continues it's rapid growth, making unsolved rape cases a thing of the past. - China's rapid growth in creating patents starts causing internal issues; they face their own first internal patent war, causing significant internal economic issues, forcing them to re-evaluate the value they ascribe to patents.