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Statically are you more or less likely to die using Tesla auto pilot? I wonder if the number of hours drivers went without autopilot, the number with, and the

Statically are you more or less likely to die using Tesla auto pilot? I wonder if the number of hours drivers went without autopilot, the number with, and the number of fatal accident occurred with and without autopilot are public?

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
URSpider94 8y ago
Tesla has published numbers stating that the accident rate with autopilot engaged is roughly half the rate with it disengaged - across their fleet, so same driver pool. https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report Note, this data is almost certainly biased since AP can only be engaged in certain circumstances and is mostly used on the highway, where accidents are much less likely overall.
- joshstrange 8y ago
  > Note, this data is almost certainly biased since AP can only be engaged in certain circumstances and is mostly used on the highway, where accidents are much less likely overall. I don't disagree but highway accidents have to be the most dangerous as well due to the speed as well as other factors. I'm not as worried about fender benders as I am a 3, 4, 5, 6.... car pileup on the highway.
mannykannot 8y ago
The question of whether one is more or less likely to kill or injure other people when using Tesla autopilot is somewhat more important. This is not an easy question to answer, especially as there are not that many incidents, and also there may be some features of the autopilot package that enhance safety, while others might create more risk than they mitigate. I assume you are unfamiliar with the strange NHTSA report, claiming improvements that seemed too good to be believed - and were: https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-nhtsa-20190214-story.html https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-nhtsa-...
popotamonga 8y ago
Reducing that to a number is dangerous. What if it was 100% safe but every hour a random tesla would just blow into pieces. Would you ride it? What if it was 100 Teslas? What if it was a number just enough to be statistically safer than regular cars?
- sokoloff 8y ago
  Likewise, failing to consider the overall number at all leaves us prone to discount significant progress that has a scary failure mode. If a system made me and my family 10x safer overall but every failure meant we were all gruesomely decapitated, I’d absolutely take it. Many people would argue strenuously against it.
  - julianlam 8y ago
    You seem to be conflating absolute risk and relative risk. In the same example, if my odds of getting into a car accident was 1 in 1000, and the Tesla 1 in 10000, I'd drive myself because fender benders and wipeouts are included in that 1 in 1000. If we're talking 1 in 5 to 1 in 50, this changes the calculus significantly.
    - sokoloff 8y ago
      You seem to be conflating safety ratio with accident ratio. I specifically predicated on "makes me and my family 10x safer overall."
LoSboccacc 8y ago
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t... "When QCS director Randy Whitfield ran the numbers for these vehicles, he found that the rate of crashes per mile increased by 59 percent after Tesla enabled the Autosteer technology. So does that mean that Autosteer actually makes crashes 59 percent more likely? Probably not. Those 5,714 vehicles represent only a small portion of Tesla's fleet, and there's no way to know if they're representative."

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

URSpider94 8y ago

Tesla has published numbers stating that the accident rate with autopilot engaged is roughly half the rate with it disengaged - across their fleet, so same driver pool. https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report Note, this data is almost certainly biased since AP can only be engaged in certain circumstances and is mostly used on the highway, where accidents are much less likely overall.

joshstrange 8y ago
> Note, this data is almost certainly biased since AP can only be engaged in certain circumstances and is mostly used on the highway, where accidents are much less likely overall. I don't disagree but highway accidents have to be the most dangerous as well due to the speed as well as other factors. I'm not as worried about fender benders as I am a 3, 4, 5, 6.... car pileup on the highway.

mannykannot 8y ago

The question of whether one is more or less likely to kill or injure other people when using Tesla autopilot is somewhat more important. This is not an easy question to answer, especially as there are not that many incidents, and also there may be some features of the autopilot package that enhance safety, while others might create more risk than they mitigate. I assume you are unfamiliar with the strange NHTSA report, claiming improvements that seemed too good to be believed - and were: https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-nhtsa-20190214-story.html https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-nhtsa-...

popotamonga 8y ago

Reducing that to a number is dangerous. What if it was 100% safe but every hour a random tesla would just blow into pieces. Would you ride it? What if it was 100 Teslas? What if it was a number just enough to be statistically safer than regular cars?

sokoloff 8y ago
Likewise, failing to consider the overall number at all leaves us prone to discount significant progress that has a scary failure mode. If a system made me and my family 10x safer overall but every failure meant we were all gruesomely decapitated, I’d absolutely take it. Many people would argue strenuously against it.
- julianlam 8y ago
  You seem to be conflating absolute risk and relative risk. In the same example, if my odds of getting into a car accident was 1 in 1000, and the Tesla 1 in 10000, I'd drive myself because fender benders and wipeouts are included in that 1 in 1000. If we're talking 1 in 5 to 1 in 50, this changes the calculus significantly.
  - sokoloff 8y ago
    You seem to be conflating safety ratio with accident ratio. I specifically predicated on "makes me and my family 10x safer overall."

LoSboccacc 8y ago

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t... "When QCS director Randy Whitfield ran the numbers for these vehicles, he found that the rate of crashes per mile increased by 59 percent after Tesla enabled the Autosteer technology. So does that mean that Autosteer actually makes crashes 59 percent more likely? Probably not. Those 5,714 vehicles represent only a small portion of Tesla's fleet, and there's no way to know if they're representative."