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Post 2/2 2) Nothing suggests to me that the Chinese model will not work. Similarly, I disagree with you that Nazi ideology does not work. Yes, Nazi leadershi
by ep103 8y ago
Post 2/2
2) Nothing suggests to me that the Chinese model will not work. Similarly, I disagree with you that Nazi ideology does not work. Yes, Nazi leadership in the 20th century ultimately lost, and they did so in no small part due to their own hubris, but I think you are sorely mistaken if you believe that this means that Nazi ideology is not a workable political model. There have been many, many nations and empires built upon the concepts that a certain class or race of people were superior, and that the rich deserved to rule the nation, among the other aspects of fascist ideology. Given a different time, country, or leadership, there could still be a Nazi government alive and well in Europe today. In fact, I would point to the fact that there is such a large international Nazi movement alive and well today, despite such gigantic attempts to constrain it, as a good indication that it is a workable and viable political movement.
It is also, however, simply NOT a world I would want to live in. The fall of the Nazis did not prove that one race was or was not stronger or "better" than another. It partially proved that the world wanted to live in a world that did not have to contend with such a competition between governments, peoples and races. It was a fundamentally moral question about what type of world we want to live in. I do not want to live in a world where Nazi ideology is the dominant ideology, and would give my life to prevent it. But this is not because I do not think Nazi ideology is a workable form of government, or that Nazi ideology would not keep its chosen people safe. It is because I fundamentally do not want to live in that world, and do not believe that that is a world humanity, or at least myself, needs to accept.
I feel similarly about post-Leninist, or post-Maoist one party rule as I do living under a monarch, or living under a dictator, a theocracy, or a fascist government. It is not that these systems do not work. It is that I do not believe these governments to be ideal or good types of governance, for either moral or quality-of-life reasons for the people thus ruled.
3) I agree with your point #3. However, you then use this as a reason to argue against change and reform. But as I stated earlier, all governments are always in a state of change and reform, so this is an invalid step of logic.
But there's a more insidious aspect to this argument, that I'm not sure you considered. Your argument here takes as an assumption that no matter what the effects are of political/organizational change and reform are, that the people involved are powerless to either correct the mistakes, or decide for themselves.
In short, it implies that the people within a country have no capability of determining their own lives. That people are purely a product of their environment, and thus must be shaped by a greater force or person with power in order to improve.
Ironically, historically, systems organized in this way almost always result in the people making the decisions being the people who are the most isolated, pampered, richest, and farthest removed from the effects of their decisions in the society. That in turn does usually mean that the country is unable to course-correct when negative reforms are made, due to the simple fact that those making the decisions are too far removed from the results of their decisions to intelligently know when to course correct.
But if we throw out that underlying assumption to begin with, and assume that people do have the ability to comprehend what is good and bad in their own lives, to at least some degree, then the fear of second order effects you are mentioning is severely mitigated, and possibly ceases to exist outright.
Allow me to put this another way: reform and change always occurs within a country. If that reform and change is not recognized by a country's organization, then it will happen informally and quietly in the hands of individuals with power, likely for their own benefit at the expense of the rest, and likely without recourse or the ability to correct mistakes. If, however, the country has a political process by which to reform itself, then that means that there is also, by definition, a way for some people in the country to undo reforms that do not work out.
In other words, you do not need to worry about reform leading to the death and misery of the people. Those that have the power to reform, by definition, will have the power to undo reform that is seen as negative. What you need to worry about, are allowing the wrong people to have this power in an unaccountable way, or organizing your society in a manner where such reform is impossible and the only possibility is eventual revolution and bloodshed. Ironically, both of these things become substantially more likely the more and more authoritarian a country is.
4) I believe I also addressed this in the previous point.
So to summarize:
5) Yes, the Chinese model likely works. With so many people in China, stability is greatly needed, and that is important, because the stakes are so unfathomably high. But a belief that the current Chinese model is the only model that could work for China is wrong. Indeed, a counter argument could be easily made (as it could be for almost all governments) that the majority of major problems China currently faces is the result of its current political structure, not solved or benefited by it. The only way to address those problems, is through academic study and comparison to other political systems so that one might identify how Chinese governance must be reformed in order to solve those problems. But the belief that change is not warranted and is unsafe both ignores the fact that change is always occurring, and dooms the country to its current path. And since its current path is one of increasing authoritarianism, the natural result of your argument, is, ironically, that the Chinese people, and the world, are less safe from the fears you mentioned at the beginning of your post as a result, not better.
Or to put it another way: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety, and will soon have Neither."
- jjcc 8y agoGreat writeup. Save it for now. Will think about your points later because a little bit long. HNers are most rational netizens as I know. However quite lot of us still believe misinformation about China unintentionally spread by Western journalists and some travellers with their simplified misinterpretation upon a huge complex topic. Sometimes those who look intelligent behave like superstitious cult believer that there’s no way to have discord discussion. Your input is valuable. Maybe not always have correct source of information. For example you believe Chinese are less informed about individual liberty because they haven’t read books from George Orwell. On the contrarily some Chinese who still promote George Orwell’s books and open society meme are considered by other fellow Chinese as simple minded blind followers of old idea with their beliefs can not be bayersianly updated on new facts. Both groups are still very small educated portion of whole population that’s why you don’t know them. Most people are not aware of both groups but only care about daily life like all other societies over the world. Anyway thank you for your idea.
- ep103 8y agoI would very much love to learn about the educated viewpoints you mentioned here. What are the new facts that make people feel like Orwell is outdated? I definitely do not have great sources of information for life inside China. I am just a developer that has grown interested in china since the 'trade wars' started. But I would like to learn more. My hope was if I could foster discussion here, and I might learn more along the way. Do you have any suggestions for better sources?
- jjcc 8y agoIt's difficult to express "educated" view (What I said was views of small portion of educated people) in a short paragraph. But what I would give a brief abstract description with some sacrifice of accuracy: Some correct ideas with the tree scope could be totally wrong when observed from the forest scope but here's no way a tree can understand forest (Maybe it can if the tree have learnt Godel theorem. Just kidding). The great idea of open society might have different out comes on different areas of forest based on nature conditions . If the democracy /open society can be pin pointed to be the root cause of sever consequence like millions of life lost, then democracy would be averted. It's not against concept of open society/individual liberty but rather choose less evil. That’s why a lot of Chinese who know Owell still support the totalitarian regime. BTW, I didn't mean Owell's thoughts is outdate itself but the people within China still promote Owell's work usually built their belief about democracy have outdate understanding about China and democracy. Some of groups (more specific, those who originated from democracy movement that triggered 1989 crackdown by government. Now most of them are overseas Chinese dissidents ) even have consistent integrity problems. (Why Chinese democracy activists have extremely high percentage of liar caused my curiosity that wasted a lot of time but that's beyond the topic). As to new facts that lead some Chinese think twice about democracy, there are many: The simplest other new facts include failure practise of democracy in different areas like middle east, east Europa, and very important one which west media won't report: the government election experiments in village (The totalitarian regimen did tried to follow the great universal value promoted by western leaders instead of keep them in power, do you believe it), Taiwan's democracy (I'm not saying that the democracy failed but a lot of observation of what happened during all the process that can draw some conclusion that could be extrapolated). There new facts even get some new explanation about many old facts. The sources of information is quite spread among many WeChat groups, moments etc. So it's difficult to get single source so it's not practical to really collect comprehensive understanding of big picture of Chinese society with so many segmented small pockets. However there are a couple of good source you can have a peek. Here's a famous rational nationalist community. http://www.m4.cn http://www.m4.cn (There are many more irrationally nationalist within China in terms of population. I personally don't support nationalist weather rational or irrational) The sponsor of the community include a VC who has a famous TED talk which might also helpful https://www.ted.com/talks/eric_x_li_a_tale_of_two_political_systems https://www.ted.com/talks/eric_x_li_a_tale_of_two_political_... Other source in general about China, there are many online but stay away any main stream media instead looking for alternative source for balance. Like moon of Alabama(not many about China but quite accurate for those related about China) , global security. Quora is a good place that there are many educated normal Chinese is there. a couple of recent piece on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-XDxCb92X4&t=3s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-XDxCb92X4&t=3s for domestic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIvC_Kdvc4E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIvC_Kdvc4E for international Look at comment section. That’s more interesting than video