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The prediction was that ride-sharing would become a winner take all market and that Lyft and Uber would fight it out to attrition, but I'm not sure if this is t

The prediction was that ride-sharing would become a winner take all market and that Lyft and Uber would fight it out to attrition, but I'm not sure if this is the case. Both of these companies are massive and I don't see one reaching escape velocity to leave the other in the dust. At a point the losses will matter and the realization will need to be had that the other will not die.

maxxxxx 8y ago
"winner take all market " This is the wet dream of all tech bubbles. It was the same in the 90s when people said whoever sells dog food online first will win that market and be the leader in perpetuity. Lyft and Uber will be easy to attack by local companies once they have to stop subsidizing their rides and actually run a real business (aka making profit)
- jrochkind1 8y ago
  That's an amusing example, because it turns out... pretty much only Amazon will sell dog food online. So it maybe WAS a winner-take-all market, but the winner wasn't that winner...
  - maxxxxx 8y ago
    There are tons of dog food sellers online. Chewys, Petco, Petsmart and many others. Amazon is usually more expensive.
panarky 8y ago
Friends and family social networking is a winner-take-all market because your friends lock you in. Messaging for gamers a la Discord is a winner-take-all market because fellow gamers lock you in. But from the rider perspective, there's very little lock-in for ride sharing services. Just install a new app and the car shows up. Doesn't matter if your friends use it. There's no moat. Ride-share lock-in is on the provider side. Can they get enough scale to cover entire cities and nations with enough cars that riders don't have to wait? Turns out with a market this big, there's room for two or three players.
- bhelkey 8y ago
  It's not a social network lock in, its a marketplace lock in. If the majority of riders are on one app, that's where the drivers will go. If the majority of drivers are one app, that's where the riders will go. Think Craigslist not Facebook.
  - luminiferous 8y ago
    There's nothing preventing drivers from driving for multiple apps, though. Most Lyft/Uber drivers I see these days have both stickers in their windshield.
    - richardwhiuk 8y ago
      I assume that didn't work because if you rejected a ride or signed out you didn't get more rides?

maxxxxx 8y ago

"winner take all market " This is the wet dream of all tech bubbles. It was the same in the 90s when people said whoever sells dog food online first will win that market and be the leader in perpetuity. Lyft and Uber will be easy to attack by local companies once they have to stop subsidizing their rides and actually run a real business (aka making profit)

jrochkind1 8y ago
That's an amusing example, because it turns out... pretty much only Amazon will sell dog food online. So it maybe WAS a winner-take-all market, but the winner wasn't that winner...
- maxxxxx 8y ago
  There are tons of dog food sellers online. Chewys, Petco, Petsmart and many others. Amazon is usually more expensive.

panarky 8y ago

Friends and family social networking is a winner-take-all market because your friends lock you in. Messaging for gamers a la Discord is a winner-take-all market because fellow gamers lock you in. But from the rider perspective, there's very little lock-in for ride sharing services. Just install a new app and the car shows up. Doesn't matter if your friends use it. There's no moat. Ride-share lock-in is on the provider side. Can they get enough scale to cover entire cities and nations with enough cars that riders don't have to wait? Turns out with a market this big, there's room for two or three players.

bhelkey 8y ago
It's not a social network lock in, its a marketplace lock in. If the majority of riders are on one app, that's where the drivers will go. If the majority of drivers are one app, that's where the riders will go. Think Craigslist not Facebook.
- luminiferous 8y ago
  There's nothing preventing drivers from driving for multiple apps, though. Most Lyft/Uber drivers I see these days have both stickers in their windshield.
  - richardwhiuk 8y ago
    I assume that didn't work because if you rejected a ride or signed out you didn't get more rides?