3 ms·

One stark example is the iPhone. I saw a 1984 Steve Jobs interview about the launch of the Mac where he was asked about the next big thing, and he described mob

One stark example is the iPhone. I saw a 1984 Steve Jobs interview about the launch of the Mac where he was asked about the next big thing, and he described mobile computing and the iPhone to a T. 23 years later, the iPhone launched. In between the two Apple fired Jobs, took a swing and a miss at the mobile market, an entire generation of companies grew up to take a swing and a miss at the mobile market, NeXT reverse acquired Apple, and only then did the vision come to fruition even though it had a guy of the caliber and resources of Steve Jobs pushing the entire time, not to mention a dozen other companies with competing similar visions and all their dependencies. Execution is hard.

alasdair_ 8y ago
There is a famous apple Newton commercial that talks about all the things it can do and will do. Fifteen years later they reshot the same commercial and simply changed the name to “ipad” - fantastic proof of foresight.
- jandrese 8y ago
  Sometimes you have to just give the idea guy a pat on the head and wait for the technology to catch up. This is one reason I really hate the "do it on a computer" patents. Someone writes down the same idea everybody has that isn't quite feasible yet with today's technology and basically sits on it. Then when the technology matures to the point where it's practical they start suing everybody who is actually implementing it.
  - davnicwil 8y ago
    Wow, I wasn't aware of this future tech patent-sitting thing. It's awful to think that this is possible. Does it really happen? Do you have any examples? How far can you take this? Does a patent have to be based in something that is vaguely implementable or can it literally just be a theoretical idea without concrete, detailed implementation specifics? I.e. could one patent things like the 'holodeck' idea today, and just wait around 50 years for it to get made, then cash in, or would that just be too ridiculous?
    - Sebb767 8y ago
      The lawsuit about Bluetooth comes to mind: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/01/06/broadcom_csr_bluetooth_lawsuit/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/01/06/broadcom_csr_blueto...
    - jandrese 8y ago
      Doing email on a phone[1] is the first example that comes to mind. Wasn't really possible with AMPS but they patented it anyway. The problem of course is that even after pulling all of the tricks to extend the life of your patent (extensions during filing, submarine patents, etc...), there is a hard time limit that you run into. If you're too ambitious the patents expire before the technology catches up and you get nothing. [1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/consumer-electronics/gadgets/the-story-behind-the-blackberry-case https://spectrum.ieee.org/consumer-electronics/gadgets/the-s...
heavenlyblue 8y ago
>> One stark example is the iPhone. I saw a 1984 Steve Jobs interview about the launch of the Mac where he was asked about the next big thing, and he described mobile computing and the iPhone to a T. 23 years later, the iPhone launched. >> and resources of Steve Jobs pushing the entire time Um. But did even Steve Jobs push for it the entire time? Y'know, every time someone comes to me with a revolutionary idea - I answer to them with a long paragraph about the next big thing: it's called "teleportation". Imagine how the world will change with us being able to teleport? Isn't that great? Y'see, I am not that smart - would you like to help me with this awesome idea?
usrusr 8y ago
...and yet the iPhone still would not have happened without that freak coincidence called iPod paving its way. Looking back from the smartphone age, the original "spinning rust" iPod seems rather unspectacular, but at the time it was unprecedentedly expensive for a piece of portable recreational electronics. I entertain this theory that it would have stayed an exotic luxury item if it had not coincided with the "Napster revolution". MP3 piracy spread from the nerd niche to mainstream just in time for the iPod (edit: and, more importantly, from the tech nerd niche to the music nerd niche), providing potential iPod buyers not only with a music library big enough to justify the expensive HDD, but also freeing up funds which would have spent on CDs otherwise. Note that the ITMS wasn't introduced until the third generation iPod. The US CD market dropped billions in those years. The typical music collector buying an early iPod wasn't exactly a rich career person, more the scrappy urbanite type who spends their nights alternating between the tender and the patron side of a bar, playing in a band or dreaming of maybe becoming a music critic or a DJ one day.
Ihfhcub 8y ago
Would like to watch that interview if you can share the link

alasdair_ 8y ago

There is a famous apple Newton commercial that talks about all the things it can do and will do. Fifteen years later they reshot the same commercial and simply changed the name to “ipad” - fantastic proof of foresight.

jandrese 8y ago
Sometimes you have to just give the idea guy a pat on the head and wait for the technology to catch up. This is one reason I really hate the "do it on a computer" patents. Someone writes down the same idea everybody has that isn't quite feasible yet with today's technology and basically sits on it. Then when the technology matures to the point where it's practical they start suing everybody who is actually implementing it.
- davnicwil 8y ago
  Wow, I wasn't aware of this future tech patent-sitting thing. It's awful to think that this is possible. Does it really happen? Do you have any examples? How far can you take this? Does a patent have to be based in something that is vaguely implementable or can it literally just be a theoretical idea without concrete, detailed implementation specifics? I.e. could one patent things like the 'holodeck' idea today, and just wait around 50 years for it to get made, then cash in, or would that just be too ridiculous?
  - Sebb767 8y ago
    The lawsuit about Bluetooth comes to mind: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/01/06/broadcom_csr_bluetooth_lawsuit/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/01/06/broadcom_csr_blueto...
  - jandrese 8y ago
    Doing email on a phone[1] is the first example that comes to mind. Wasn't really possible with AMPS but they patented it anyway. The problem of course is that even after pulling all of the tricks to extend the life of your patent (extensions during filing, submarine patents, etc...), there is a hard time limit that you run into. If you're too ambitious the patents expire before the technology catches up and you get nothing. [1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/consumer-electronics/gadgets/the-story-behind-the-blackberry-case https://spectrum.ieee.org/consumer-electronics/gadgets/the-s...

heavenlyblue 8y ago

>> One stark example is the iPhone. I saw a 1984 Steve Jobs interview about the launch of the Mac where he was asked about the next big thing, and he described mobile computing and the iPhone to a T. 23 years later, the iPhone launched. >> and resources of Steve Jobs pushing the entire time Um. But did even Steve Jobs push for it the entire time? Y'know, every time someone comes to me with a revolutionary idea - I answer to them with a long paragraph about the next big thing: it's called "teleportation". Imagine how the world will change with us being able to teleport? Isn't that great? Y'see, I am not that smart - would you like to help me with this awesome idea?

usrusr 8y ago

...and yet the iPhone still would not have happened without that freak coincidence called iPod paving its way. Looking back from the smartphone age, the original "spinning rust" iPod seems rather unspectacular, but at the time it was unprecedentedly expensive for a piece of portable recreational electronics. I entertain this theory that it would have stayed an exotic luxury item if it had not coincided with the "Napster revolution". MP3 piracy spread from the nerd niche to mainstream just in time for the iPod (edit: and, more importantly, from the tech nerd niche to the music nerd niche), providing potential iPod buyers not only with a music library big enough to justify the expensive HDD, but also freeing up funds which would have spent on CDs otherwise. Note that the ITMS wasn't introduced until the third generation iPod. The US CD market dropped billions in those years. The typical music collector buying an early iPod wasn't exactly a rich career person, more the scrappy urbanite type who spends their nights alternating between the tender and the patron side of a bar, playing in a band or dreaming of maybe becoming a music critic or a DJ one day.

Ihfhcub 8y ago

Would like to watch that interview if you can share the link