3 ms·

I'd also be interested in how Life Expectancy at Birth is calculated in advance.

• gumby 8y ago
  It’s really just death rate at the time the newborn is born: if x% of the population died in 2016 and that never changed going forward, how long would the mean person born that year live (given that people born in earlier years would be dying at their rate, contributing to the formula. So technically not actually predicting an expected lifespan (thermonuclear war could happen after all) but allows longitudinal and secular analysis.
  • dwighttk 8y ago
    ok, so infant mortality from that year doesn't effect the number? (any more specifically than those deaths adding to the overall death rate)
    • gumby 8y ago
      Yes it does
      • dwighttk 8y ago
        How?
        • gumby 8y ago
          I described the approach in my first comment: for 2018 (now it's over) look at the death rate and then apply estimate it uniformly going forward for all recorded births during the year until the surviving population goes to nil. The death rate is all the people who died, whether 1 jan or 31 dec regardless of the age of the deceased. If you want greater resolution on a process like this you'll do better to search yourself than to reply on HN commenters like me.