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I met Vaclav Smil 3 years ago in Zurich and talked with him. He told me, he doesn't believe in climate change. I find that very odd. His books might still be go

I met Vaclav Smil 3 years ago in Zurich and talked with him. He told me, he doesn't believe in climate change. I find that very odd. His books might still be good so.

acidburnNSA 8y ago
He must have changed since then. He sees the effects of climate change quantitatively and worries a lot about them. I've discussed this with him several times. At this point he's extremely tired of writing quantitative facts and seeing the world basically ignore the magnitude of the challenge of the energy transformation we're up against. He's skeptical that we'll be able to get our act together for the thing we need. Here are some of my shorthand notes from last time I spoke with him. It's clear that he believes in climate change. We've detached ourselves totally from the material world. Everyone is a money massager or investment banker. But point is that everything has been made by someone somewhere. Primary iron (electric arc furnace, in US is recycled) 1 billion tonnes of coke per year to make primary iron in China. 1.6 B tonnes of steel. Cement: 4.2 B tonnes/year with the worst possible fuel. 300 M t plastics. And ammonia. Without these there are no roads and buildings and metal. These are fundamental pillars of civilization that have no non-fossil sources. Carnegie melon made 5 g of iron by reducing with hydrogen. So how do you replace 4 pillars of civilization in scale with something non-carbon? DR Congo have lots of hydro. There could be a lot of hydro building there. India has some coal, they will burn all of it. Indian coal is low quality. Until at least 2047 coal will be primary source of India energy. You don't want to think about future of energy in Africa. If you have 0.5 Billion in Nigeria. If you want sleepless nights, think about Nigeria. Cleave it any way and it will have half a billion. No reliable electricity in the capital. To answer your question he has no idea, it's a nightmare. Lots of cleavages. One big river is drying out. Sunshine isn't going to carry the civilization.

I met Vaclav Smil 3 years ago in Zurich and talked with him. He told me, he doesn't believe in climate change. I find that very odd. His books might still be good so.

acidburnNSA 8y ago

He must have changed since then. He sees the effects of climate change quantitatively and worries a lot about them. I've discussed this with him several times. At this point he's extremely tired of writing quantitative facts and seeing the world basically ignore the magnitude of the challenge of the energy transformation we're up against. He's skeptical that we'll be able to get our act together for the thing we need. Here are some of my shorthand notes from last time I spoke with him. It's clear that he believes in climate change. We've detached ourselves totally from the material world. Everyone is a money massager or investment banker. But point is that everything has been made by someone somewhere. Primary iron (electric arc furnace, in US is recycled) 1 billion tonnes of coke per year to make primary iron in China. 1.6 B tonnes of steel. Cement: 4.2 B tonnes/year with the worst possible fuel. 300 M t plastics. And ammonia. Without these there are no roads and buildings and metal. These are fundamental pillars of civilization that have no non-fossil sources. Carnegie melon made 5 g of iron by reducing with hydrogen. So how do you replace 4 pillars of civilization in scale with something non-carbon? DR Congo have lots of hydro. There could be a lot of hydro building there. India has some coal, they will burn all of it. Indian coal is low quality. Until at least 2047 coal will be primary source of India energy. You don't want to think about future of energy in Africa. If you have 0.5 Billion in Nigeria. If you want sleepless nights, think about Nigeria. Cleave it any way and it will have half a billion. No reliable electricity in the capital. To answer your question he has no idea, it's a nightmare. Lots of cleavages. One big river is drying out. Sunshine isn't going to carry the civilization.