The Xinjiang situation doesn't have a lot of pragmatic options aside from going down a path akin to Crimea or Bosnia. From what I can tell: - Xinjiang is 90%

The Xinjiang situation doesn't have a lot of pragmatic options aside from going down a path akin to Crimea or Bosnia. From what I can tell: - Xinjiang is 90% uninhabited grassland and desert; so we're talking about a big region with a lot of emptiness. - China's value is the New Silk Road railroad from Asia -> Europe travels through Urumqi in Xinjiang, and the region is part of China's Western Development Strategy to enhance its economy. - Geopolitically: surrounded by Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan. Basically even if "annexed" by any surrounding nations, Xinjiang would still be governed by a pseudo-"termless president" unitary state. - Demographically: There's going to be an inflection point between the "native" population and the Han Chinese population. Having a bunch of new people into the neighborhood and receive favoritism isn't bound to win over locals. That could also push the "native" population to emigrate to neighboring countries with language and cultural similarities. - If Xinjiang declared independence, which would likely start elevated conflict with China, then I could see Russia (+ the '-stans') supporting Xinjiang (covertly or overtly) if that means gaining a new "puppet state" in East Turkestan, and having greater control over the Eurasian Land Bridge railroads. - Growing Islamic radicalization or "imported terrorism" in Xinjiang from fellow Sunni Islam countries (e.g. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia) would be a death sentence for any hope of negotiation, as China would only double-down on their grasp and it would turn the region into another Syria. - There is no compelling reason for the U.S. or Western Europe to send any military forces to Xinjiang because there is nothing to gain aside from karma. It's high-risk political suicide to enter into such a war post-Middle East when there is low demand for coal and enough domestic resources for oil/natural gas. - Since the most major cities in Xinjiang are also the highest percentage areas of Han Chinese (like Urumqi), losing them in an independence initiative for East Turkestan would mean most Uyghurs would lose access to those economic sources and probably have to re-rely on agriculture. If China decided to blockade Turkestan (like U.S. to Cuba), then Russia (and ex-USSR) would be the new economic lifeline for the region.