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Lets not jump on the doomsday train that easily. We are not the first humans to make these sort of predictions. Throughout centuries elites in society have alwa
by KorematsuFred 8y ago
Lets not jump on the doomsday train that easily. We are not the first humans to make these sort of predictions. Throughout centuries elites in society have always made such predictions. Gods are going to wipe us out, Gays are going to wipe us out, Witchcraft is going to wipeout, Horseshit on streets of NY is going to wipe us out and what not.
Three is a fundamental flaw with these predictions. These predictions are made by people who have no business or expertise to be in prediction business. Climate scientists who make tall claims often have zero knowledge about how the real world operates.
I see celebrities crying their heart out for antarctic icecaps and rising ocean levels but I do not see any of them selling off their beach front properties. Fishing companies are not diversifying their business yet. I can tell you fossil fuel powered cars are as good as dead in next 10 years because almost every large car company today has electric strategy. I trust that lot more than research paper written by "experts".
But coming back to why these predictions such is because they look at very few random variables that have direct impact on say ocean temperature and then make predictions over 50 years. For example in 2100 Ocean levels will rise by 1 meter. Sure given your random variables that is what the extrapolation says but when you consider 80 years you need to realize that now you will encounter several "low probability high impact" events during that phase. It can include a world war, USA economy tanking for good, California facing massive earthquake that destroys silicon valley or invention of cold fusion cells that totally change our energy consumption. We do no know what those events are but the probability that some event of that nature will occur is ~1. All the climate change predictions will fall flat on its face. Pretty much like population explosion 30 years ago.
PS. This is not to say the climate change is something we should ignore or do nothing about, I am only asking for relaxing a bit before jumping to extreme conclusions.