4 ms·

I suspect China would not be too happy about a nuclear North Korea in its backyard. And they definitely wouldn't want North Korea to actually nuke the South. S

I suspect China would not be too happy about a nuclear North Korea in its backyard. And they definitely wouldn't want North Korea to actually nuke the South. So, if it looks like Kim Jong Il is getting really serious about starting hostilities, China will allow the U.S. and South Korea to invade the North and topple the Kim dynasty, while it looks the other way. Moreover, China could strike a bargain with the U.S.: "We let you take North Korea, you let us take Taiwan."

rdtsc 16y ago
I think they would ultimately want to control them better. They could use NK to issue crazy threats and manipulation to the world, which they could not do directly. They could also use it to export arms and nuclear technology to foreign countries. US has those countries and I am sure China would like them too.
SkyMarshal 16y ago
I doubt that. NK is a useful pawn for China, and an ally and buffer against the US military in SK. Nukes there also make them more of a problem for the US, Japan, and SK than for China. And there's no way they'd ever let the US take the entire Korean Penninsula. Remember they pushed the US back when we got too close to the Chinese border in the Korean War. Not happening, ever.
- captain_mars 16y ago
  Both you and rdtsc make good points. However, I don't think China would want NK to actually use the nukes. China would want to maintain status quo. So, if it looks like NK is serious about using nukes, China (I believe) will allow a U.S.-led invasion. But, as you said, they wouldn't want the U.S. to get too close to their border, so maybe China itself would invade from the North, creating a buffer zone between itself and the U.S. forces. Another scenario: Maybe in the case of a U.S. invasion, China will allow the Kim dynasty to enter China and request asylum, and in return China will occupy a small part of North Korea to keep as a buffer. I don't know as much about the Korean conflict as much as some other members here, and many of my guesses might be wrong.

rdtsc 16y ago

I think they would ultimately want to control them better. They could use NK to issue crazy threats and manipulation to the world, which they could not do directly. They could also use it to export arms and nuclear technology to foreign countries. US has those countries and I am sure China would like them too.

SkyMarshal 16y ago

I doubt that. NK is a useful pawn for China, and an ally and buffer against the US military in SK. Nukes there also make them more of a problem for the US, Japan, and SK than for China. And there's no way they'd ever let the US take the entire Korean Penninsula. Remember they pushed the US back when we got too close to the Chinese border in the Korean War. Not happening, ever.

captain_mars 16y ago
Both you and rdtsc make good points. However, I don't think China would want NK to actually use the nukes. China would want to maintain status quo. So, if it looks like NK is serious about using nukes, China (I believe) will allow a U.S.-led invasion. But, as you said, they wouldn't want the U.S. to get too close to their border, so maybe China itself would invade from the North, creating a buffer zone between itself and the U.S. forces. Another scenario: Maybe in the case of a U.S. invasion, China will allow the Kim dynasty to enter China and request asylum, and in return China will occupy a small part of North Korea to keep as a buffer. I don't know as much about the Korean conflict as much as some other members here, and many of my guesses might be wrong.