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Bitcoin trades at six figures at some point in the next 10 years.

• gota 8y ago
  There's people posting about free electrical energy and this is somehow more improbable
• AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  Counter-prediction: Bitcoin trades at three figures at some point in the next 10 years. (And not at six.)
  • Lordarminius 8y ago
    Would you like to share your reasons for being bearish on BTC ?
    • AnimalMuppet 8y ago
      From the current price, it's closer to three digits than to six, so my prediction actually has less price movement than the other. But it's more than that. I've never believed the "To the moon!" predictions, because I've never believed that the real use value was there. It seems that people are investing on belief, but the actual real world use is... almost non-existent. What's the daily volume of Bitcoin transactions that are purchases of other things, rather than investments in Bitcoin? [Edit: Divide that by the existing number of Bitcoin. That gives you the fraction spent in a day. What's the same figure for the US dollar?] Is Bitcoin really a currency if (relatively) nobody uses it to buy things? No, at that point it's an investment. [Edit: Or a store of value. But the value is fluctuating too much for it to be a very good store of value...] But if there's no fundamental value, and it's not being used as a currency, what's the rational basis for its value? This makes it seem like a bubble. Now, I don't actually have data for volume of purchases made in Bitcoin. I'm going on my impression, and I could be wrong.