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Shopping on Amazon is like shopping in Chinatown now. The funny thing is, you know Amazon has the data and must be optimizing in the short term. This shit must

by duado 8y ago

Shopping on Amazon is like shopping in Chinatown now. The funny thing is, you know Amazon has the data and must be optimizing in the short term. This shit must be working, for some definition of working. Personally, anything that touches my child, or goes in my body, is not allowed to be bought on Amazon.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
Most companies collapse from within, they don't get trounced by competitors. Competitors come along with a new angle that seems innocuous at first, but then turns out to entail 'the thing people want'. It's very, very easy from an operational perspective to focus on the data-driven decision to sell crap, to ignore fake reviews etc. because that's what sells 'today'. But an A/B test (short view) does not capture users recurring behaviour, and response to that experience overall. If the A/B test encompassed a 'year long study' they might find a different set of data: upset customers who don't come back. Which could lead to systematic 'sand in the engine' that could seriously erode Amazon. The only way this would be resolved really is if Bezos himself makes a pretty firm commitment to it, which is hard obviously because 'quality' is a difficult thing to put a number on. That said, it's hard to conclude how truly damaging this is. Once people are hooked on something, it takes an alternative for them to change their behaviour.
- duado 8y ago
  The alternative: Target.com. Once you try it, you’ll never go back. Amazon is still where I buy a wireless mouse, or a phone holder for my car, but big electronics come from B&H or Newegg, diapers and kids toys and baby food comes from Target.
  - treis 8y ago
    >Newegg They have gone the way of being a market and are not to be trusted. They robbed me out of $630 through a combination of fraud and my CC company being wankers.
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    The 'alternative' is just every other e-commerce store. Once a lot of other larger companies figure out how to do cheap and quick delivery ... what advantage will Amazon have? People think Amazon has a leg on Wallmart. I'm not so sure! Wallmart has a 'distribution centre' (aka a store) only 5 miles from every American! Wallmart already has the wheels greased for the things we really need. Wallmart can sell razors, groceries and diapers every day while Amazon sells the not-so-common stuff. I'm amazed Wallmart hasn't figured it out already ...
    - bluGill 8y ago
      The part walmart hasn't figured out is how to get people to think of going to walmart.com in the first place. I used it when my printer broke and I needed one. Same day pickup for free. They list dozens of printers, but it was easy to sort on ones that were in stock in my local store so I could get same day pickup. I went just a few minutes out of my way, and had a working printer when I got home from work. Sure on amazon I might have bought a different printer with some nice to have feature, but I wouldn't have got it today. Target is just as easy (maybe easier). I don't know why anyone would look to Amazon first anymore. Sure for obscure things amazon (or ebay), is more likely to have it. Even then I go to obscureProduct.com where the staff knows something about their products and I can read their buyers guide and get a good brand (They probably are biased to selling some brand which is worth more profit to them, but they at least keep me away from the junk brands which is in itself worth far more to me than a few buck extra profit to them)
- duado 8y ago
  My personal theory is that they are doing this very deliberately... they view “selling stuff” as a lousy business and AWS as the real business, and are just maximizing short term retail profits to invest in AWS.
  - lawnchair_larry 8y ago
    That’s a bad theory. They’re forever optimizing how people buy things, and people will always buy things.
0000011111 8y ago
Tooth past, soap, food items like protein bars are so easy to order off the site. It is hard to imagine the challenge of hunting these items down in crowed stores to shop them my self. There are lots of items I regularly buy that are not review dependent and I will keep ordering them for the long term.
- duado 8y ago
  Right, but do you get that some of these items are counterfeit? And your Colgate toothpaste may be Bob’s toothpaste from Guangzhou?
- astura 8y ago
  Those are widely counterfeited items on Amazon.
vonmoltke 8y ago
> The funny thing is, you know Amazon has the data and must be optimizing in the short term. Why? How do we "know" they have the data? How do we "know" that can act on whatever data they have? People here seem to ascribe a level of omniscience to tech giants that I'm not certain they deserve.
- thatoneuser 8y ago
  Are you seriously proposing Amazon doesn't realize what's going on with their review systems?
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - longerthoughts 8y ago
    Knowing the problem exists isn't the same as having granular data on the scope and nature of the problem. That said... I'd bet they have some data.
  - vonmoltke 8y ago
    No, as the sibling's post indicates I am suggesting they don't have sufficient data to bound or correct the problem. It's a problem of getting the correct data, then extracting signal from that data. People here seem to be trivializing that part.
- duado 8y ago
  You think everyone on the Internet except people at Amazon knows about this?
  - vonmoltke 8y ago
    I don't think "everyone on the Internet" has any idea as to the true scope of the problem, nor do I that no they have a scalable solution.
- derefr 8y ago
joegahona 8y ago
I drew a similar line recently -- no more buying pills or stuff for my dog on Amazon. I wonder if everyone did this how much it would ding their bottom line.

by duado 8y ago

sonnyblarney 8y ago

Most companies collapse from within, they don't get trounced by competitors. Competitors come along with a new angle that seems innocuous at first, but then turns out to entail 'the thing people want'. It's very, very easy from an operational perspective to focus on the data-driven decision to sell crap, to ignore fake reviews etc. because that's what sells 'today'. But an A/B test (short view) does not capture users recurring behaviour, and response to that experience overall. If the A/B test encompassed a 'year long study' they might find a different set of data: upset customers who don't come back. Which could lead to systematic 'sand in the engine' that could seriously erode Amazon. The only way this would be resolved really is if Bezos himself makes a pretty firm commitment to it, which is hard obviously because 'quality' is a difficult thing to put a number on. That said, it's hard to conclude how truly damaging this is. Once people are hooked on something, it takes an alternative for them to change their behaviour.

duado 8y ago
The alternative: Target.com. Once you try it, you’ll never go back. Amazon is still where I buy a wireless mouse, or a phone holder for my car, but big electronics come from B&H or Newegg, diapers and kids toys and baby food comes from Target.
- treis 8y ago
  >Newegg They have gone the way of being a market and are not to be trusted. They robbed me out of $630 through a combination of fraud and my CC company being wankers.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  The 'alternative' is just every other e-commerce store. Once a lot of other larger companies figure out how to do cheap and quick delivery ... what advantage will Amazon have? People think Amazon has a leg on Wallmart. I'm not so sure! Wallmart has a 'distribution centre' (aka a store) only 5 miles from every American! Wallmart already has the wheels greased for the things we really need. Wallmart can sell razors, groceries and diapers every day while Amazon sells the not-so-common stuff. I'm amazed Wallmart hasn't figured it out already ...
  - bluGill 8y ago
    The part walmart hasn't figured out is how to get people to think of going to walmart.com in the first place. I used it when my printer broke and I needed one. Same day pickup for free. They list dozens of printers, but it was easy to sort on ones that were in stock in my local store so I could get same day pickup. I went just a few minutes out of my way, and had a working printer when I got home from work. Sure on amazon I might have bought a different printer with some nice to have feature, but I wouldn't have got it today. Target is just as easy (maybe easier). I don't know why anyone would look to Amazon first anymore. Sure for obscure things amazon (or ebay), is more likely to have it. Even then I go to obscureProduct.com where the staff knows something about their products and I can read their buyers guide and get a good brand (They probably are biased to selling some brand which is worth more profit to them, but they at least keep me away from the junk brands which is in itself worth far more to me than a few buck extra profit to them)
duado 8y ago
My personal theory is that they are doing this very deliberately... they view “selling stuff” as a lousy business and AWS as the real business, and are just maximizing short term retail profits to invest in AWS.
- lawnchair_larry 8y ago
  That’s a bad theory. They’re forever optimizing how people buy things, and people will always buy things.

0000011111 8y ago

Tooth past, soap, food items like protein bars are so easy to order off the site. It is hard to imagine the challenge of hunting these items down in crowed stores to shop them my self. There are lots of items I regularly buy that are not review dependent and I will keep ordering them for the long term.

duado 8y ago
Right, but do you get that some of these items are counterfeit? And your Colgate toothpaste may be Bob’s toothpaste from Guangzhou?
astura 8y ago
Those are widely counterfeited items on Amazon.

vonmoltke 8y ago

> The funny thing is, you know Amazon has the data and must be optimizing in the short term. Why? How do we "know" they have the data? How do we "know" that can act on whatever data they have? People here seem to ascribe a level of omniscience to tech giants that I'm not certain they deserve.

thatoneuser 8y ago
Are you seriously proposing Amazon doesn't realize what's going on with their review systems?
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- longerthoughts 8y ago
  Knowing the problem exists isn't the same as having granular data on the scope and nature of the problem. That said... I'd bet they have some data.
- vonmoltke 8y ago
  No, as the sibling's post indicates I am suggesting they don't have sufficient data to bound or correct the problem. It's a problem of getting the correct data, then extracting signal from that data. People here seem to be trivializing that part.
duado 8y ago
You think everyone on the Internet except people at Amazon knows about this?
- vonmoltke 8y ago
  I don't think "everyone on the Internet" has any idea as to the true scope of the problem, nor do I that no they have a scalable solution.
derefr 8y ago

joegahona 8y ago

I drew a similar line recently -- no more buying pills or stuff for my dog on Amazon. I wonder if everyone did this how much it would ding their bottom line.