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> We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt

> We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt with far far far worse outcomes in the past and there’s no evidence that it’ll reach that in the newr future. This got down-voted to hell, which is odd, because it rings true. The "total annihilation" isn't even that hyperbolic. I've seen comments here on HN that depict our world as under imminent threat of global nuclear war, or that depict our world as suffering from a mass extinction (caused by humans) that will end all life as we know it. I believe those statements are the hyperbolic ones, and one should be allowed to call them out for that.

usrusr 8y ago
The history-repeating argument, when applied to drunk driving: "so far I've always made it home without killing anyone". I read a lot about history and the one common thread that appears over and over again is that history is only repeating until it stops doing so. So many cycles that must have seemed eternal to those inside have eventually come to an end. One day, every Cassandra will be right.
- ckastner 8y ago
  The history-repeating argument, when applied to astronomy: "so far, the Earth has revolved around the Sun". Just to show that the history-repeating argument can be made ad absurdum both ways. We have ample empirical evidence that drunk driving poses a significant risk of killing someone, hence there should be a non-trival level of expectation of this outcome. We have absolutely zero empirical evidence as to what actions may trigger a nuclear holocaust, and we're currently not seeing any of the popularly accepted causes for the 5 mass extinctions of the past.
acqq 8y ago
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html "I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days… " Every day somebody was able (even accidentally) to start the nuclear annihilation of the whole world (hint: it's not "just a president" who can do that, but many, many more): the complex systems and the war plans are actually maintained in which everything happens in just a few hours. Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now.
- ckastner 8y ago
  > Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now. Observing a pond exclusively frequented by white swans in the past is not proof that black swans don't exist, but from that fact alone you cannot derive any reasonable expectation of seeing a black swan upon a random visit to the same pond.

usrusr 8y ago

The history-repeating argument, when applied to drunk driving: "so far I've always made it home without killing anyone". I read a lot about history and the one common thread that appears over and over again is that history is only repeating until it stops doing so. So many cycles that must have seemed eternal to those inside have eventually come to an end. One day, every Cassandra will be right.

ckastner 8y ago
The history-repeating argument, when applied to astronomy: "so far, the Earth has revolved around the Sun". Just to show that the history-repeating argument can be made ad absurdum both ways. We have ample empirical evidence that drunk driving poses a significant risk of killing someone, hence there should be a non-trival level of expectation of this outcome. We have absolutely zero empirical evidence as to what actions may trigger a nuclear holocaust, and we're currently not seeing any of the popularly accepted causes for the 5 mass extinctions of the past.

acqq 8y ago

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html "I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days… " Every day somebody was able (even accidentally) to start the nuclear annihilation of the whole world (hint: it's not "just a president" who can do that, but many, many more): the complex systems and the war plans are actually maintained in which everything happens in just a few hours. Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now.

ckastner 8y ago
> Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now. Observing a pond exclusively frequented by white swans in the past is not proof that black swans don't exist, but from that fact alone you cannot derive any reasonable expectation of seeing a black swan upon a random visit to the same pond.