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We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt wi

We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt with far far far worse outcomes in the past and there’s no evidence that it’ll reach that in the newr future.

skh 8y ago
We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. I know people talk in hyperbole to make a point but can you point to any credible source in the last 30 years stating we are close to total annilhilation within the next 50 years? No one doubts the Earth will be fine. The doubt is whether or not human civilization will be fine.
- XorNot 8y ago
  I think an even better way is not even human civilization, of some sort is in doubt. It's civilization where you get to walk to the store and buy a week's supply of food in exchange for money, and expect to do so the next week just as easily, which is in doubt.
thomasahle 8y ago
Problems were fixed because we did stuff about them. The abandonment of cfc gasses was huge. Treaties on fishing and hunting has saved tons of species. Any single person can probably get away with not doing anything, and the problems will seem to magically go away, but they only do so because some people act. (And usually it takes a lot of people.)
taneq 8y ago
We're always 3 missed meals away from anarchy too.
- uxcolumbo 8y ago
  It's '9 meals to anarchy' - so it's basically 3 days.
  - taneq 8y ago
    There are plenty of versions of it with different numbers of meals and different anarchic endpoints. It's a pretty broad fact of the human condition.
swinglock 8y ago
You're right, the earth has had worse and will be just fine. After all the earth is just a rock, it's not concerned about emissions or life. It's not the earth anyone needs to worry about, it's the humans. We've not been through worse and our smaller challenges often have catastrophic outcomes.
TeMPOraL 8y ago
"Total annihilation" may be a bit far-fetched, but what we are much closer to is global war, death and suffering for you, me, and everyone we know. Just to cover one angle (IMO most likely one): reduced living space (sea rise) and food shortages will cause massive migrations. Think how the whole EU went basically insane over a bunch of refugees from Syria (and the aftershocks still threaten to shake it apart). Climate-change induced migrations will be much larger, and this time around actually backed by countries people are fleeing. Wars are likely. Proxy wars are likely too. And nukes won't be off the table either. Even if you live so far inland that waters can't get to you, people will. And if you survive that, then lack of people will get to you as the global supply chain stretches to a breaking point and suddenly no one can make anything as all the components came from China. The lifestyle we're all used to depends on global-scale systems with single points of failure.
ckastner 8y ago
> We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt with far far far worse outcomes in the past and there’s no evidence that it’ll reach that in the newr future. This got down-voted to hell, which is odd, because it rings true. The "total annihilation" isn't even that hyperbolic. I've seen comments here on HN that depict our world as under imminent threat of global nuclear war, or that depict our world as suffering from a mass extinction (caused by humans) that will end all life as we know it. I believe those statements are the hyperbolic ones, and one should be allowed to call them out for that.
- usrusr 8y ago
  The history-repeating argument, when applied to drunk driving: "so far I've always made it home without killing anyone". I read a lot about history and the one common thread that appears over and over again is that history is only repeating until it stops doing so. So many cycles that must have seemed eternal to those inside have eventually come to an end. One day, every Cassandra will be right.
  - ckastner 8y ago
    The history-repeating argument, when applied to astronomy: "so far, the Earth has revolved around the Sun". Just to show that the history-repeating argument can be made ad absurdum both ways. We have ample empirical evidence that drunk driving poses a significant risk of killing someone, hence there should be a non-trival level of expectation of this outcome. We have absolutely zero empirical evidence as to what actions may trigger a nuclear holocaust, and we're currently not seeing any of the popularly accepted causes for the 5 mass extinctions of the past.
- acqq 8y ago
  https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html "I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days… " Every day somebody was able (even accidentally) to start the nuclear annihilation of the whole world (hint: it's not "just a president" who can do that, but many, many more): the complex systems and the war plans are actually maintained in which everything happens in just a few hours. Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now.

skh 8y ago

We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. I know people talk in hyperbole to make a point but can you point to any credible source in the last 30 years stating we are close to total annilhilation within the next 50 years? No one doubts the Earth will be fine. The doubt is whether or not human civilization will be fine.

XorNot 8y ago
I think an even better way is not even human civilization, of some sort is in doubt. It's civilization where you get to walk to the store and buy a week's supply of food in exchange for money, and expect to do so the next week just as easily, which is in doubt.

thomasahle 8y ago

Problems were fixed because we did stuff about them. The abandonment of cfc gasses was huge. Treaties on fishing and hunting has saved tons of species. Any single person can probably get away with not doing anything, and the problems will seem to magically go away, but they only do so because some people act. (And usually it takes a lot of people.)

taneq 8y ago

We're always 3 missed meals away from anarchy too.

uxcolumbo 8y ago
It's '9 meals to anarchy' - so it's basically 3 days.
- taneq 8y ago
  There are plenty of versions of it with different numbers of meals and different anarchic endpoints. It's a pretty broad fact of the human condition.

swinglock 8y ago

You're right, the earth has had worse and will be just fine. After all the earth is just a rock, it's not concerned about emissions or life. It's not the earth anyone needs to worry about, it's the humans. We've not been through worse and our smaller challenges often have catastrophic outcomes.

TeMPOraL 8y ago

"Total annihilation" may be a bit far-fetched, but what we are much closer to is global war, death and suffering for you, me, and everyone we know. Just to cover one angle (IMO most likely one): reduced living space (sea rise) and food shortages will cause massive migrations. Think how the whole EU went basically insane over a bunch of refugees from Syria (and the aftershocks still threaten to shake it apart). Climate-change induced migrations will be much larger, and this time around actually backed by countries people are fleeing. Wars are likely. Proxy wars are likely too. And nukes won't be off the table either. Even if you live so far inland that waters can't get to you, people will. And if you survive that, then lack of people will get to you as the global supply chain stretches to a breaking point and suddenly no one can make anything as all the components came from China. The lifestyle we're all used to depends on global-scale systems with single points of failure.

ckastner 8y ago

> We’re always 10 years from total annihilation and destruction. You can worry your whole life (tons of people do) or go on with your life. The earth has dealt with far far far worse outcomes in the past and there’s no evidence that it’ll reach that in the newr future. This got down-voted to hell, which is odd, because it rings true. The "total annihilation" isn't even that hyperbolic. I've seen comments here on HN that depict our world as under imminent threat of global nuclear war, or that depict our world as suffering from a mass extinction (caused by humans) that will end all life as we know it. I believe those statements are the hyperbolic ones, and one should be allowed to call them out for that.

usrusr 8y ago
The history-repeating argument, when applied to drunk driving: "so far I've always made it home without killing anyone". I read a lot about history and the one common thread that appears over and over again is that history is only repeating until it stops doing so. So many cycles that must have seemed eternal to those inside have eventually come to an end. One day, every Cassandra will be right.
- ckastner 8y ago
  The history-repeating argument, when applied to astronomy: "so far, the Earth has revolved around the Sun". Just to show that the history-repeating argument can be made ad absurdum both ways. We have ample empirical evidence that drunk driving poses a significant risk of killing someone, hence there should be a non-trival level of expectation of this outcome. We have absolutely zero empirical evidence as to what actions may trigger a nuclear holocaust, and we're currently not seeing any of the popularly accepted causes for the 5 mass extinctions of the past.
acqq 8y ago
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html https://www.mymoneyblog.com/talebs-thanksgiving-turkey.html "I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days… " Every day somebody was able (even accidentally) to start the nuclear annihilation of the whole world (hint: it's not "just a president" who can do that, but many, many more): the complex systems and the war plans are actually maintained in which everything happens in just a few hours. Our statistics that it didn't happen yet is not a proof that an "accident" (oh, sorry, it was an error!) can't very easily happen any moment now.