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Personally, I'd like to see a financial market develop that allows people to predict future global temperatures in short, mid and long term time frames. (let's
by wtvanhest 8y ago
Personally, I'd like to see a financial market develop that allows people to predict future global temperatures in short, mid and long term time frames. (let's say 5 years, 10 years, 30 years).
That market would reveal humanities unbiased view of climate change predictions. It would give us a great tool to put things in perspective.
- jessedhillon 8y agoRates of retirement savings participation vs doomsday hoarding, controlled for age cohort, should get you a rough cut at it.
- lazyjones 8y agoGood suggestion, but first you'd need consensus on methods for measuring and calculating global temperatures. Currently, several different methods are used by established institutions and the results come with a relatively large confidence range. Personally, I'd rather bet on temperatures at single stations than what these observatories calculate. Here are some details: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/sur... (scroll to "What do other groups do differently?")
- wtvanhest 8y agoThat is a feature of having a financial system. People with really good incentives would attempt to find an agreeable way to measure earth's temps.
- jhanschoo 8y agoWill that truly be undistorted? At the levels of scale in the energy sector, there might be a profitable incentive to distort the market. Use FUD against the issuers so that most would not care to invest, then manipulate whatever is left.