3 ms·

I suppose what I generally mean is that most of the people that I've talked to only consider it within the scope of "what can go wrong", and seem to never consi

I suppose what I generally mean is that most of the people that I've talked to only consider it within the scope of "what can go wrong", and seem to never consider the more general statement. I'm certainly not claiming to be the first person to think such a way, if that's the impression I gave off. Murphy's law is a favorite of mine because it's the perfect driving board for conversations about infinite probabilities and aliens and simulation stuff.

dahart 8y ago
I guess I still don't know exactly what the more general statement is you're referring to. Do you mean just that a non-zero probability of a single event happening equals 100% probability given a large enough sample of events (which may take a large amount of time)? I feel like Murphy's law as stated captures that idea adequately. And it's certainly true if the event probability really is non-zero. Sometimes, though, we can calculate event probabilities that are apparently non-zero based on known information, but are zero in reality. One example in my head is quantum tunneling. Maybe this is along the lines you're talking about? And this is the way my physics TA described it many years ago, but caveat I'm not a physicist and I suspect there are some problems with this analogy. He said you can calculate the probability of an atom spontaneously appearing on the other side of a solid wall, and you can calculate the same (less likely) probability of two atoms going together, therefore there is a non-zero probability that a human can teleport whole through the wall. The odds are too small to expect to ever see it, but on the other hand, with the amount of matter in the universe we should expect to see small scale examples somewhat often, and we don't. There may be unknown reasons that the probability of an event is zero.
- 0_gravitas 8y ago
  It looks like we agree on all points, yes

dahart 8y ago

I guess I still don't know exactly what the more general statement is you're referring to. Do you mean just that a non-zero probability of a single event happening equals 100% probability given a large enough sample of events (which may take a large amount of time)? I feel like Murphy's law as stated captures that idea adequately. And it's certainly true if the event probability really is non-zero. Sometimes, though, we can calculate event probabilities that are apparently non-zero based on known information, but are zero in reality. One example in my head is quantum tunneling. Maybe this is along the lines you're talking about? And this is the way my physics TA described it many years ago, but caveat I'm not a physicist and I suspect there are some problems with this analogy. He said you can calculate the probability of an atom spontaneously appearing on the other side of a solid wall, and you can calculate the same (less likely) probability of two atoms going together, therefore there is a non-zero probability that a human can teleport whole through the wall. The odds are too small to expect to ever see it, but on the other hand, with the amount of matter in the universe we should expect to see small scale examples somewhat often, and we don't. There may be unknown reasons that the probability of an event is zero.

0_gravitas 8y ago
It looks like we agree on all points, yes