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Stocks do beat gold over long stretches of time except in times of crisis (obviously). There are 10 year ranges where gold does beat the market. Then it goes to
by trident5000 8y ago
Stocks do beat gold over long stretches of time except in times of crisis (obviously). There are 10 year ranges where gold does beat the market. Then it goes to sleep or down for 10 years at a time (obviously this destroys its compounding effect and puts it at a severe disadvantage to stocks)....this makes sense because its a commodity... For instance it absolutely ripped in 2000 through 2011 but fell thereafter while the global economy was full steam ahead.
Further, theres a reason why Ray Dalio is saying its a good time to hold some gold today. namely the absurd US entitlement schedule/unfunded pensions and global debt being absurdly high(320% of GDP). Despite what Buffet is saying, regular deleveragings (say every 10 years or so) do clearly happen as seen in 2001 and 2008 (though 2008 wasnt really a deleveraging of debt like it was in 2001 if you look at the data) - obviously it was a greater shock however... We are arguably in the "long term debt cycle/a super cycle" as Dalio writes in his latest book (which happens about every 70 years) because global interest rates are at rock bottom (central govts around the world dont have tools to bail out the economy at these levels). I know Buffet is right in the very long run, but I dont have the stomach endure the next 3 years or or so/be down like 50% for a period of time. Ill invest back in the market after this next recession.
- latchkey 8y agoI took the mention of gold as a thinly veiled statement against holding cryptocurrency. What do you think from that context? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-buying-bitcoin-not-investing-110702015.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-buying-bitcoin... “There’s two kinds of items that people buy and think they’re investing,” he says. “One really is investing and the other isn’t.” Bitcoin, he says, isn’t. “If you buy something like a farm, an apartment house, or an interest in a business… You can do that on a private basis… And it’s a perfectly satisfactory investment. You look at the investment itself to deliver the return to you. Now, if you buy something like bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don’t really have anything that has produced anything. You’re just hoping the next guy pays more.” When you buy cryptocurrency, Buffett continues, “You aren’t investing when you do that. You’re speculating. There’s nothing wrong with it. If you wanna gamble somebody else will come along and pay more money tomorrow, that’s one kind of game. That is not investing.”