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>I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan Did you get bull/bear mixed up, or do you not like Japan?

by ppod 8y ago

PakG1 8y ago
There's no way you can say Japan today has the same status it had in the 80s. It's nowhere near as powerful as what people thought it would be. edit: If you want to see a really bearish outlook for Japan, see the issues with their population decline. If they don't figure out marriage, birth rates, or immigration, they will have a lot of problems in the future. They're already having problems. I think Japan will figure it out. But no way you can say that Japan currently looks like it has a good future. https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-faster-than-every-other-big-country/ https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-... https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-... https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8 https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e6... And if immigration becomes the solution, Japan just becomes more of a cultural term, rather than an ethnic term. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but Japan already tried to do that before, and gave up. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigra... But here they go again, and again for mostly less skilled work, I guess. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/japan-becoming-country-immigration https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/jap... https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-immigration-migrant-workers-complain-of-exploitation https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-...
- ppod 8y ago
  Yeah I think I agree with all that, I think I just have a kind of pedantic point that getting to 2019 Japan from 2019 China would be a net positive.
  - PakG1 8y ago
    Heh, it might, I guess we just have different goal posts of how to measure China's success in the world. I think most Chinese people would be disappointed if they end up like 2019 Japan, I think their own hopes are to be on equal footing with the US.

>I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan Did you get bull/bear mixed up, or do you not like Japan?

by ppod 8y ago

>I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan Did you get bull/bear mixed up, or do you not like Japan?

PakG1 8y ago

There's no way you can say Japan today has the same status it had in the 80s. It's nowhere near as powerful as what people thought it would be. edit: If you want to see a really bearish outlook for Japan, see the issues with their population decline. If they don't figure out marriage, birth rates, or immigration, they will have a lot of problems in the future. They're already having problems. I think Japan will figure it out. But no way you can say that Japan currently looks like it has a good future. https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-faster-than-every-other-big-country/ https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-... https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-... https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8 https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e6... And if immigration becomes the solution, Japan just becomes more of a cultural term, rather than an ethnic term. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but Japan already tried to do that before, and gave up. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigra... But here they go again, and again for mostly less skilled work, I guess. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/japan-becoming-country-immigration https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/jap... https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-immigration-migrant-workers-complain-of-exploitation https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-...

ppod 8y ago
Yeah I think I agree with all that, I think I just have a kind of pedantic point that getting to 2019 Japan from 2019 China would be a net positive.
- PakG1 8y ago
  Heh, it might, I guess we just have different goal posts of how to measure China's success in the world. I think most Chinese people would be disappointed if they end up like 2019 Japan, I think their own hopes are to be on equal footing with the US.