6 ms·

You have a completely different worldview, a completely different education, a completely different history, and a completely different upbringing. For example

by PakG1 8y ago

You have a completely different worldview, a completely different education, a completely different history, and a completely different upbringing. For example, China never had the Magna Carta event that Western civilization had centuries ago, enabling a foundationally disparate view of government and society eons ago. This is not a criticism of you. It's an explanation why you can't understand. You need to transplant yourself into Chinese history to understand its people. That in turn will help you understand its domestic policy, economic policy, foreign policy, and more. Have gone through that process myself, lived in China for almost a decade now. I also didn't get it at the beginning. I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan, but mainly due to secular trends beyond China's control. That doesn't stop me from figuring out things that I didn't know before. It's weirdly educational, as I didn't realize how intellectually arrogant, ignorant, and unwilling to consider other perspectives I was before. Perhaps still am. :)

taway483 8y ago
I think you do a great disservice to the Chinese people by assuming that they don't care or that they support it. The fact is that they're helpless. They have nothing to gain by expressing their true beliefs and everything to lose. I have many Chinese friends and they all either post government propaganda (that they don't believe in or support) on weixin or stay quiet. Why? Because it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. When they go travel, want to get a loan, a promotion, etc. then it will play a major role.
- johnisgood 8y ago
  > Because it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. When they go travel, want to get a loan, a promotion, etc. then it will play a major role. That is very sad. :/
- PakG1 8y ago
  What can I say? My Chinese friends who like the job their government is doing outweigh my Chinese friends who don't. Want to compare numbers and demographics? I've accumulated a fair number of Chinese friends from all walks of life in multiple cities in multiple regions across the country, both very rich and very poor. When you speak of me doing a great disservice, it speaks of a moral superiority in your mind. I used to think like that. Now I feel like I understand Chinese society better. I don't agree with much of it, it still doesn't match my values. But I do understand it better than before, even if I disagree with it.
  - taway483 8y ago
    If you lived in North Korea, do you think your North Korean friends who like the job their government is doing would outweight those who don't? Would you dare to criticize the government if you were in their position? This video does a great job at illustrating the situation your Chinese friends face: https://vimeo.com/44078865 https://vimeo.com/44078865
    - PakG1 8y ago
      That's not a fair comparison because Chinese citizens are a lot more educated and aware than you make it sound. North Koreans are a lot more suppressed, and most of them have never been outside of their country. You also make it sound like I can't have real heart-to-heart debates with my Chinese friends due to their fear of being caught; I assure you these are their real opinions. What I've found is that the average educated Chinese person has more understanding of western governments than the average western person has understanding of the Chinese government. I don't know if that colours western opinions, but I do believe my lack of knowledge coloured mine some time ago. A number of my Chinese friends are well-educated, and many of them received masters degrees from top universities in the US. Many of them make 6-figure salaries when converted to USD, working for the likes of IBM, Tesla, and Walmart, as well as your usual Chinese big companies and smaller startups. But I honestly do not see a lot of difference in the opinion proportions when I compare my rich, educated friends with my poor, non-educated friends. Look, I'm a Christian, right? As a Christian, I'm very well aware of what my Chinese friends could face, especially my Christian Chinese friends, if they cross the government. I know what's happened in the past too. It's a complex situation where yes, some people are afraid. But in my experience, the afraid people are outnumbered by people who are satisfied and very optimistic. And many of my friends who are satisfied are not blindly satisfied. Again, they're educated, intelligent, and aware. They see that the future is complex and have chosen to agree that the government's current policies are mostly the best way forward. They can match me hit for hit in any debate. Again, when I did a deep dive into Chinese history, I started to see very deep currents that influenced why China's domestic policies, economic policies, and foreign policies are what they are today, and why they make sense in this context. Would I ever want to become a Chinese citizen? No, I can't agree with a lot of this stuff. I just understand it better than I used to. A friend of mine who got his masters in environmental science at Texas A&M said to me, "The west thought that we needed democracy and freedoms to be happy. Honestly, we just wanted a better standard of living, we don't need that other stuff." The actual comprehensive sentiments of my friends are of course a bit more complex, but one of the commenters here who speaks as an African empathizes quite well with this general sentiment. If the economy every collapsed into oblivion, I guess we might see another revolution. China has had a lot of them in the last 100 years. But these guys mostly have confidence in their government. They feel things are getting better, not worse, and they feel this will continue. That's just a survey of my friends from all walks of Chinese life. I don't think anything is gained going back and forth here. You have your set of friends who tell you one thing, and I have my set of friends who tell me something else. I think it's easier for me to believe my set of friends, as I think they're quite a diverse group across multiple demographic dimensions. If your friends are likewise so diverse, I don't know, what should I say? For whatever reason, the two of us are being told different things by people we trust.
- yorwba 8y ago
  > it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. That's what visibility controls are for. You don't have to let everyone see what you post, and I have many friends who use that to post things critical of the Chinese government, mostly on topics like censorship or the relationship to Taiwan, especially when the referendum on gay marriage was in the news.
  - luckylion 8y ago
    They trust post visibility controls to hide their posts from the government? Hell, I wouldn't even trust those to hide them from anyone, really. Too man bugs in software, too many bugs in UX, too many terrible business decisions ("we'll just remove these to expand user generated content and drive up enagegement levels"). When you give me "controls" I don't control, I treat them as if they are always set to the worst case possible.
    - yorwba 8y ago
      The government knows anyway. Half of the posts about censorship I see are just screenshots of two sides of a conversation, showing which messages didn't make it to the other end. The visibility controls are there to hide that stuff from people who're not part of the government.
ppod 8y ago
>I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan Did you get bull/bear mixed up, or do you not like Japan?
- PakG1 8y ago
  There's no way you can say Japan today has the same status it had in the 80s. It's nowhere near as powerful as what people thought it would be. edit: If you want to see a really bearish outlook for Japan, see the issues with their population decline. If they don't figure out marriage, birth rates, or immigration, they will have a lot of problems in the future. They're already having problems. I think Japan will figure it out. But no way you can say that Japan currently looks like it has a good future. https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-faster-than-every-other-big-country/ https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-... https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-... https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8 https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e6... And if immigration becomes the solution, Japan just becomes more of a cultural term, rather than an ethnic term. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but Japan already tried to do that before, and gave up. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigra... But here they go again, and again for mostly less skilled work, I guess. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/japan-becoming-country-immigration https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/jap... https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-immigration-migrant-workers-complain-of-exploitation https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-...
  - ppod 8y ago
    Yeah I think I agree with all that, I think I just have a kind of pedantic point that getting to 2019 Japan from 2019 China would be a net positive.
    - PakG1 8y ago
      Heh, it might, I guess we just have different goal posts of how to measure China's success in the world. I think most Chinese people would be disappointed if they end up like 2019 Japan, I think their own hopes are to be on equal footing with the US.

by PakG1 8y ago

taway483 8y ago

I think you do a great disservice to the Chinese people by assuming that they don't care or that they support it. The fact is that they're helpless. They have nothing to gain by expressing their true beliefs and everything to lose. I have many Chinese friends and they all either post government propaganda (that they don't believe in or support) on weixin or stay quiet. Why? Because it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. When they go travel, want to get a loan, a promotion, etc. then it will play a major role.

johnisgood 8y ago
> Because it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. When they go travel, want to get a loan, a promotion, etc. then it will play a major role. That is very sad. :/
PakG1 8y ago
What can I say? My Chinese friends who like the job their government is doing outweigh my Chinese friends who don't. Want to compare numbers and demographics? I've accumulated a fair number of Chinese friends from all walks of life in multiple cities in multiple regions across the country, both very rich and very poor. When you speak of me doing a great disservice, it speaks of a moral superiority in your mind. I used to think like that. Now I feel like I understand Chinese society better. I don't agree with much of it, it still doesn't match my values. But I do understand it better than before, even if I disagree with it.
- taway483 8y ago
  If you lived in North Korea, do you think your North Korean friends who like the job their government is doing would outweight those who don't? Would you dare to criticize the government if you were in their position? This video does a great job at illustrating the situation your Chinese friends face: https://vimeo.com/44078865 https://vimeo.com/44078865
  - PakG1 8y ago
    That's not a fair comparison because Chinese citizens are a lot more educated and aware than you make it sound. North Koreans are a lot more suppressed, and most of them have never been outside of their country. You also make it sound like I can't have real heart-to-heart debates with my Chinese friends due to their fear of being caught; I assure you these are their real opinions. What I've found is that the average educated Chinese person has more understanding of western governments than the average western person has understanding of the Chinese government. I don't know if that colours western opinions, but I do believe my lack of knowledge coloured mine some time ago. A number of my Chinese friends are well-educated, and many of them received masters degrees from top universities in the US. Many of them make 6-figure salaries when converted to USD, working for the likes of IBM, Tesla, and Walmart, as well as your usual Chinese big companies and smaller startups. But I honestly do not see a lot of difference in the opinion proportions when I compare my rich, educated friends with my poor, non-educated friends. Look, I'm a Christian, right? As a Christian, I'm very well aware of what my Chinese friends could face, especially my Christian Chinese friends, if they cross the government. I know what's happened in the past too. It's a complex situation where yes, some people are afraid. But in my experience, the afraid people are outnumbered by people who are satisfied and very optimistic. And many of my friends who are satisfied are not blindly satisfied. Again, they're educated, intelligent, and aware. They see that the future is complex and have chosen to agree that the government's current policies are mostly the best way forward. They can match me hit for hit in any debate. Again, when I did a deep dive into Chinese history, I started to see very deep currents that influenced why China's domestic policies, economic policies, and foreign policies are what they are today, and why they make sense in this context. Would I ever want to become a Chinese citizen? No, I can't agree with a lot of this stuff. I just understand it better than I used to. A friend of mine who got his masters in environmental science at Texas A&M said to me, "The west thought that we needed democracy and freedoms to be happy. Honestly, we just wanted a better standard of living, we don't need that other stuff." The actual comprehensive sentiments of my friends are of course a bit more complex, but one of the commenters here who speaks as an African empathizes quite well with this general sentiment. If the economy every collapsed into oblivion, I guess we might see another revolution. China has had a lot of them in the last 100 years. But these guys mostly have confidence in their government. They feel things are getting better, not worse, and they feel this will continue. That's just a survey of my friends from all walks of Chinese life. I don't think anything is gained going back and forth here. You have your set of friends who tell you one thing, and I have my set of friends who tell me something else. I think it's easier for me to believe my set of friends, as I think they're quite a diverse group across multiple demographic dimensions. If your friends are likewise so diverse, I don't know, what should I say? For whatever reason, the two of us are being told different things by people we trust.
yorwba 8y ago
> it will be seen by their families, friends, classmates, professors, coworkers, bosses, etc. That's what visibility controls are for. You don't have to let everyone see what you post, and I have many friends who use that to post things critical of the Chinese government, mostly on topics like censorship or the relationship to Taiwan, especially when the referendum on gay marriage was in the news.
- luckylion 8y ago
  They trust post visibility controls to hide their posts from the government? Hell, I wouldn't even trust those to hide them from anyone, really. Too man bugs in software, too many bugs in UX, too many terrible business decisions ("we'll just remove these to expand user generated content and drive up enagegement levels"). When you give me "controls" I don't control, I treat them as if they are always set to the worst case possible.
  - yorwba 8y ago
    The government knows anyway. Half of the posts about censorship I see are just screenshots of two sides of a conversation, showing which messages didn't make it to the other end. The visibility controls are there to hide that stuff from people who're not part of the government.

ppod 8y ago

>I'm an overall China bear, think its final destination is to be like Japan Did you get bull/bear mixed up, or do you not like Japan?

PakG1 8y ago
There's no way you can say Japan today has the same status it had in the 80s. It's nowhere near as powerful as what people thought it would be. edit: If you want to see a really bearish outlook for Japan, see the issues with their population decline. If they don't figure out marriage, birth rates, or immigration, they will have a lot of problems in the future. They're already having problems. I think Japan will figure it out. But no way you can say that Japan currently looks like it has a good future. https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-faster-than-every-other-big-country/ https://qz.com/1295721/the-japanese-population-is-shrinking-... https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fertility-crisis-2017-... https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8 https://www.ft.com/content/75cb43e2-d4f7-11e8-a854-33d6f82e6... And if immigration becomes the solution, Japan just becomes more of a cultural term, rather than an ethnic term. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but Japan already tried to do that before, and gave up. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23immigra... But here they go again, and again for mostly less skilled work, I guess. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/japan-becoming-country-immigration https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2018-08-03/jap... https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-immigration-migrant-workers-complain-of-exploitation https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/683224099/as-japan-tries-out-...
- ppod 8y ago
  Yeah I think I agree with all that, I think I just have a kind of pedantic point that getting to 2019 Japan from 2019 China would be a net positive.
  - PakG1 8y ago
    Heh, it might, I guess we just have different goal posts of how to measure China's success in the world. I think most Chinese people would be disappointed if they end up like 2019 Japan, I think their own hopes are to be on equal footing with the US.