I totally agree. Also important to note that "always overestimate yourself" and "bank on people who overestimate themselves" are not solid corrolaries. The boa

I totally agree. Also important to note that "always overestimate yourself" and "bank on people who overestimate themselves" are not solid corrolaries. The boastful are high variance, even taking your own judgement into account. And where there are power-law outcomes, exposing yourself to the wrong kind of tail risk can be fatal.