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I have no degree in statistics. But I know for sure that any statistics is just meaningless numbers if you have no hypothesis behind it. At the same time the on
by ordu 8y ago
I have no degree in statistics. But I know for sure that any statistics is just meaningless numbers if you have no hypothesis behind it. At the same time the only method to deal with single observation I know is bayesian statistics. As I understand this statistics have an answer "observation of Oumuamua raises probability that there are many objects like this in the interstellar space".
We can suggest that there are N classes of objects in space, we picked one at random, and it happens to be Oumuamua belonging to the class of Oumuamua-like. To one of N classes. The more some class is common, the more probability for us to see element from this class. Here we can use Bayes' theorem and conclude that the fact of observation of Oumuamua is a weak evidence that the class of Oumuamua-like is more common in the interstellar space than any other class.
It is a weak evidence, and I dont know how much is it. But the point is this evidence points to an ordinariness of objects like Oumuamua not to a rareness.