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The license plate example is a kind of nonsense magic example to just use the same things that the parent comment was talking about - you should also factor in
by ALittleLight 8y ago
The license plate example is a kind of nonsense magic example to just use the same things that the parent comment was talking about - you should also factor in to your analysis the absurdity of issuing an identical plate to every car, etc.
Instead, consider the example with the urns. I think that's a lot more realistic and illustrates the problem.
- chr1 8y agoMaybe there is some process that makes the red ball to always go to the top, so the probability of finding it is larger than one to million. In both cases you do not have enough information to make any conclusions.
- ddxxdd 8y ago>In both cases you do not have enough information to make any conclusions. That's why the field of statistics exists in the first place.