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Notice this guy joined Twitter in December. There was a similar "order site" hack back when we were waiting for delivery of our car. I can't remember precisely
by rconti 8y ago
Notice this guy joined Twitter in December.
There was a similar "order site" hack back when we were waiting for delivery of our car. I can't remember precisely, but there was a way of finding some hidden status info in the JSON.
I'm extremely suspicious of his conclusions -- particularly the one saying there are tons of RWD Long Range cars just sitting around for... reasons. It doesn't pass the sniff test. They stopped making them last year -- he says October, I thought it was even earlier. You're telling me, at the end of the summer, when they were just catching up with demand, they discontinued the LR, and just haven't bothered to try to sell any of them since then? Nobody's willing to pay a few thousand more than the MR for the LR battery? Nobody's willing to save a few thousand on an AWD LR, by dropping the 2nd motor?
Let's be really clear here -- Tesla is NOT SELLING an RWD LR 3 in the US at this stage. The claim that they have them in inventory but aren't selling them just beggars belief. To what end? To drive slightly higher margins on the AWD LR 3? At the cost of having inventory just sitting around rotting?
I also wonder if he's sure they're US cars. For 3 weeks solid I saw at least one transporter full of Euro-spec 3s going up 101 to SF to be shipped overseas. Some days I saw 2 or even 3 transporters, which is impressive since I only spend maybe 30mins a day on 101. I'm sure as US demand softened, they built up inventory of cars to ship to Europe where there's still pent-up demand, so maybe that's what the inventory was?
Clearly the tweeter is claiming demand is so soft that they can't sell them, and I certain't don't think this purported excess of LR RWD inventory holds water.
- minikites 8y ago>Notice this guy joined Twitter in December. Why is this important or notable?
- tedivm 8y agoSo then if this doesn't pass the sniff test, why is their inventory system responding that these vehicles are available? The twitter thread shows you how to easily verify the author's claims, and with some quick spot checks I was able to confirm that the API works the way they say it does.
- meritt 8y ago> Notice this guy joined Twitter in December. Leakers have good reason to protect their identity. Especially when Tesla fans get so clearly agitated about anything that can be even remotely construed as negative toward Tesla and/or Musk. > particularly the one saying there are tons of RWD Long Range cars just sitting. The claim that they have them in inventory but aren't selling them just beggars belief. Why do you need to be "suspicious" of something as obvious as the below. These are just 3 examples that appear like you can place the order. Those are all LR RWDs (they only comprise 2.4% of the dataset, so I agree that LR RWDs are basically non-existent) * https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA7JF136358 https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA7JF136358 * https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA9JF118167 https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA9JF118167 * https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA0JF062734 https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EA0JF062734 > I also wonder if he's sure they're US cars The sixth digit in the VIN is a '7' for European cars and '1' for North American Model 3s. 100% of these VINs have a '1' in the sixth position. There's also 10,848 vehicles listed, quite a few more than the 8500 in the headline. > For 3 weeks solid I saw at least one transporter full of Euro-spec 3s going up 101 to SF to be shipped overseas. Yes, they have sent 5 ships to Europe and 4 to China so far. Estimates are 2,500 cars per ship. A 10th ship just arrived on Sunday. So yes that's ~25,000 cars going to Pier 80 in San Franciso so far this quarter.
- rio517 8y agoDid these URLs work 8 minutes ago? I'm getting 404s.
- meritt 8y agoHah, yeah they did. I had them open when I typed up that comment. I guess that argument is moot now.
- rconti 8y agoThx for the VIN info! Unfortunately, as mentioned, Tesla 404'd those links. I'm just not sure why I'd believe this data is correct. At least when Tesla was backlogged for US orders, VINs weren't assigned until a few days before delivery. As another commenter pointed out, they have a number of systems that seem to not agree with each other. The twitter thread's mocking "who wants to buy a flooded car" post is written as if he's caught some nefarious plan to sell an un-saleable car, when, in fact, it just seems to be further evidence that the data is garbage. Not to say it's not legitimate, just that it's not GOOD. It just seems so silly for this guy to suggest that Tesla is a garbage incompetent company on the verge of perennial bankruptcy, but some web portal is clearly the Source of Truth of all inventory data, and couldn't possibly be in the sort of disarray they accuse the rest of the company of being.
- compstricken 8y ago>"I'm extremely suspicious of his conclusions -- particularly the one saying there are tons of RWD Long Range cars just sitting around for... reasons. It doesn't pass the sniff test. These guys have been posting pictures of car lots full of M3s, not moving, for months. Maybe you should try sniffing outside your bubble?