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Sobering to read that Waymo simply couldn't sell their software stack by itself even though that was their plan A, a la Android. The only reason that allows me

Sobering to read that Waymo simply couldn't sell their software stack by itself even though that was their plan A, a la Android. The only reason that allows me to make sense of this is that old-line manufacturers just couldn't bring themselves to believe that software (albeit nets not code) could be quite valuable. Which may mean they're stuck in a very old-fashioned head-space.

sterlind 8y ago
Or perhaps they realize exactly how valuable Waymo is, and how dangerous it would be to ally with them. The contract probably stipulated that auto manufacturers cease efforts to develop a competitor to Waymo, meaning they'd be tied to Alphabet forever. Under Android, most OEMs have razor-thin profit margins and little ability to customize the stack. If auto manufacturers think there's enough lead time for them to develop a viable competitor (Cruise), why should they knuckle under to Alphabet? Cue lobbyists fighting to keep each other from DMV certification..
- Nomentatus 8y ago
  I'm not assuming contract lock-in (there's none with Android, you can drop out at any time.) Android has created competition that reduces mobile hardware to a commodity, but that pressure hits competitors with different OSes, too. (For example, in China.) PS - you are forbidden (strictly illegally IMHO - bundling law - but you are) from distributing Google apps with phones that employ the Android libraries but not the full Google Android OS proper; but if you avoid Google's libraries you're good to leave for any other OS and still OEM their apps.
- Nomentatus 8y ago
  I haven't been especially clear. I said "could be valuable" - I might also have said "could be hard to replicate." Nets are hard to create because they need masses of data to train as the article says. Paradoxically, at the same time they're just about impossible to effectively protect as IP; functional duplication of a net is (nearly) always possible if you're willing to put up the money. So why not pay less to rent the software now and wait 'till recreating the nets is far cheaper or already largely available as open source? I suspect the old-line car companies have tossed away a ton of money because they had zero understanding of neural net commerce or economics.

sterlind 8y ago

Or perhaps they realize exactly how valuable Waymo is, and how dangerous it would be to ally with them. The contract probably stipulated that auto manufacturers cease efforts to develop a competitor to Waymo, meaning they'd be tied to Alphabet forever. Under Android, most OEMs have razor-thin profit margins and little ability to customize the stack. If auto manufacturers think there's enough lead time for them to develop a viable competitor (Cruise), why should they knuckle under to Alphabet? Cue lobbyists fighting to keep each other from DMV certification..

Nomentatus 8y ago
I'm not assuming contract lock-in (there's none with Android, you can drop out at any time.) Android has created competition that reduces mobile hardware to a commodity, but that pressure hits competitors with different OSes, too. (For example, in China.) PS - you are forbidden (strictly illegally IMHO - bundling law - but you are) from distributing Google apps with phones that employ the Android libraries but not the full Google Android OS proper; but if you avoid Google's libraries you're good to leave for any other OS and still OEM their apps.
Nomentatus 8y ago
I haven't been especially clear. I said "could be valuable" - I might also have said "could be hard to replicate." Nets are hard to create because they need masses of data to train as the article says. Paradoxically, at the same time they're just about impossible to effectively protect as IP; functional duplication of a net is (nearly) always possible if you're willing to put up the money. So why not pay less to rent the software now and wait 'till recreating the nets is far cheaper or already largely available as open source? I suspect the old-line car companies have tossed away a ton of money because they had zero understanding of neural net commerce or economics.