7 ms·

I heard from a Chinese legal academic that when China is diplomatically isolated, the two provinces tend to be left alone to enjoy the benefits of their indepen

I heard from a Chinese legal academic that when China is diplomatically isolated, the two provinces tend to be left alone to enjoy the benefits of their independent foreign ties. When China is more politically feeling comfortable, that is when the pressure for conformity tends to come from Beijing.

geowwy 8y ago
The opposite seems to be true right now. China's relations with the West are a bit strained at the moment.
- RavlaAlvar 8y ago
  I am the unveiling of this plan signals an imminent US-CN deal.
- culturestate 8y ago
  The relationship looks tense, but Chinese leadership seems to feel that they have everything under control; like this particular kerfuffle is an unavoidable step on their march toward becoming a superpower. I would be comfortable if I were seeing the world that way, too.
  - arcticbull 8y ago
    Indeed, Beijing's leadership tends to take a very long term view of growth plans. This lines up with my mental model of how they operate.
    - elefanten 8y ago
      This is a bit more of a meme than truth
      - sushid 8y ago
        Are you saying that the concept of the hundred year marathon is a meme?
- azurezyq 8y ago
  That's unavoidable actually. Basically US just begins to treat China as an eligible opponent. There were never "friendly" relationships between two superpowers in history if I remember correctly.
  - oblio 8y ago
    There were, up to a point. France and the UK carved up several continents without much tension, after 1850 or so. Provided that China becomes less authoritarian and the US doesn't do something stupid, it's not impossible for both to coexist, while still competing.
    - ende 8y ago
      It’s also not that impossible to imagine both being peer stakeholders in a renewed liberal trade order, ala US + EU.
      - riffraff 8y ago
        And yet the US/EU relationship is at an all time low.
        killyp 8y ago
        I would say that this depends on your perspective. While Trump likes to talk bad about the EU, NATO and FVEY members, our military, intelligence and economic cooperation is still VERY strong. And I see no indication of this changing, outside of the rhetoric coming out of the White House. Our Allies know that pulling out of Syria via Twitter was not a decision that came from the Pentagon.
    - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
      It took a thousand years for Franco-British relations to settle to peaceful tolerance, then the Entente Cordiale. I can't, for example, imagine calls for a China-US union like Franco-British Union was seriously suggested twice in the 20th century. The second time might have been interesting for world history, as the French PM proposed it before France decided to join the Treaty of Rome nations to bootstrap the EU.
- wahern 8y ago
  The economic growth of the so-called developing world, including that of China, means that China will feel less isolated no matter how the West behaves. Also, the Chinese-U.S. relationship is what is abnormally strained at the moment, except not really. Firstly, nobody in the international community takes Trump at his word (he's a notorious liar who also follows a wholly transparent negotiating playbook, one that he's spent decades advertising). Secondly, even if Trump followed through on his blusters, China is well aware that following through on them is also costly to the U.S. and even to Trump's base (e.g. soy farmers), so they can discount the risk considerably. Thirdly, Trump doesn't care much about human rights or long-term international political norms and actually often idolizes authoritarian regimes and other anti-normative behaviors. Trump has no inclination to invest himself in the matter of China obeying a 30+ year-old bilateral treaty with the U.K.; it's of no matter to him. All of these combined mean that, whatever China is feeling, politically or economically isolated is not one of them. Rather, what every non-Western country likely feels at this moment in time is opportunity--the post-WWII international order is disintegrating, and more importantly the moral center of that order, the United States, has amoral leadership backed by an electorate that has no interest in continuing to provide moral direction. Everything is on the table, now. Which, to be fair, is more-or-less what Trump promised.
  - simonh 8y ago
    >Secondly, even if Trump followed through on his blusters, China is well aware that following through on them is also costly to the U.S. and even to Trump's base (e.g. soy farmers), so they can discount the risk considerably. What are you even talking about? Trump imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods a year ago. US Soy exports to China, previously their biggest market, also collapsed last year after being hit with 20% tariffs last summer[0]. According to some estimates, they fell by 98%[1]. They have resumed some small scale purchases, but that's mainly due to a lull in the Brazilian growing cycle. What you think will never happen, already did over the last 12 months. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybeans/china-imports-zero-us-soybeans-in-november-for-first-time-since-trade-war-started-idUSKCN1ON0ER https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybe... [1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredible-u-s-china-soybean-nosedive-one-chart-161047194.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredible-u-s-china-soybean-...
gammateam 8y ago
Well the Hong Kong autonomy expires in 2047 It would be negligent not to continually manage and revise the plans as the economies change. It would be stranger to know that you are legally obligated to annex and support a neighboring economic powerhouse with a totally parallel incompatible culture that was ignored or isolated for 50 years. Instead, Mainland China has become less and less aligned with Marx’s teachings, and Hong Kong has become more and more aligned with the rest of the bay area economic regions.
- ngcc_hk 8y ago
  The whole idea is not sending hker to hell of communists. The struggle of hongkonger for basic human rights are getting worse and worse. Not sure why you get this idea.
  - johnzim 8y ago
    CCP propaganda is strong - that's why. Look at the language used "return" - people still think HK was leased. It wasn't - the New Territories were. People don't care about HK people. I wish they did but no one does. At least Tibet has some awareness surrounding it in the West - HK just got hung out to dry. Of all the colonies from which British rule was removed, only HK got handed over to the thugs, thieves and torturers its population had previously escaped. Everyone else got independence. HKers didn't even get UK passports.
    - em500 8y ago
      > Look at the language used "return" - people still think HK was leased. It wasn't - the New Territories were. And most of Kowloon. As opposed to HK Island, which was obtained by legitimate conquest, I suppose? > Of all the colonies from which British rule was removed, only HK got handed over to the thugs, thieves and torturers its population had previously escaped. What realistic alternative would you have suggested to Thatcher at the time?
      - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
porpoisely 8y ago
That doesn't make much sense since hong kong and macau were only returned to china within the last 20 years give or take. And in that time, china has never been diplomatically isolated.

geowwy 8y ago

The opposite seems to be true right now. China's relations with the West are a bit strained at the moment.

RavlaAlvar 8y ago
I am the unveiling of this plan signals an imminent US-CN deal.
culturestate 8y ago
The relationship looks tense, but Chinese leadership seems to feel that they have everything under control; like this particular kerfuffle is an unavoidable step on their march toward becoming a superpower. I would be comfortable if I were seeing the world that way, too.
- arcticbull 8y ago
  Indeed, Beijing's leadership tends to take a very long term view of growth plans. This lines up with my mental model of how they operate.
  - elefanten 8y ago
    This is a bit more of a meme than truth
    - sushid 8y ago
      Are you saying that the concept of the hundred year marathon is a meme?
azurezyq 8y ago
That's unavoidable actually. Basically US just begins to treat China as an eligible opponent. There were never "friendly" relationships between two superpowers in history if I remember correctly.
- oblio 8y ago
  There were, up to a point. France and the UK carved up several continents without much tension, after 1850 or so. Provided that China becomes less authoritarian and the US doesn't do something stupid, it's not impossible for both to coexist, while still competing.
  - ende 8y ago
    It’s also not that impossible to imagine both being peer stakeholders in a renewed liberal trade order, ala US + EU.
    - riffraff 8y ago
      And yet the US/EU relationship is at an all time low.
      - killyp 8y ago
        I would say that this depends on your perspective. While Trump likes to talk bad about the EU, NATO and FVEY members, our military, intelligence and economic cooperation is still VERY strong. And I see no indication of this changing, outside of the rhetoric coming out of the White House. Our Allies know that pulling out of Syria via Twitter was not a decision that came from the Pentagon.
  - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
    It took a thousand years for Franco-British relations to settle to peaceful tolerance, then the Entente Cordiale. I can't, for example, imagine calls for a China-US union like Franco-British Union was seriously suggested twice in the 20th century. The second time might have been interesting for world history, as the French PM proposed it before France decided to join the Treaty of Rome nations to bootstrap the EU.
wahern 8y ago
The economic growth of the so-called developing world, including that of China, means that China will feel less isolated no matter how the West behaves. Also, the Chinese-U.S. relationship is what is abnormally strained at the moment, except not really. Firstly, nobody in the international community takes Trump at his word (he's a notorious liar who also follows a wholly transparent negotiating playbook, one that he's spent decades advertising). Secondly, even if Trump followed through on his blusters, China is well aware that following through on them is also costly to the U.S. and even to Trump's base (e.g. soy farmers), so they can discount the risk considerably. Thirdly, Trump doesn't care much about human rights or long-term international political norms and actually often idolizes authoritarian regimes and other anti-normative behaviors. Trump has no inclination to invest himself in the matter of China obeying a 30+ year-old bilateral treaty with the U.K.; it's of no matter to him. All of these combined mean that, whatever China is feeling, politically or economically isolated is not one of them. Rather, what every non-Western country likely feels at this moment in time is opportunity--the post-WWII international order is disintegrating, and more importantly the moral center of that order, the United States, has amoral leadership backed by an electorate that has no interest in continuing to provide moral direction. Everything is on the table, now. Which, to be fair, is more-or-less what Trump promised.
- simonh 8y ago
  >Secondly, even if Trump followed through on his blusters, China is well aware that following through on them is also costly to the U.S. and even to Trump's base (e.g. soy farmers), so they can discount the risk considerably. What are you even talking about? Trump imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods a year ago. US Soy exports to China, previously their biggest market, also collapsed last year after being hit with 20% tariffs last summer[0]. According to some estimates, they fell by 98%[1]. They have resumed some small scale purchases, but that's mainly due to a lull in the Brazilian growing cycle. What you think will never happen, already did over the last 12 months. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybeans/china-imports-zero-us-soybeans-in-november-for-first-time-since-trade-war-started-idUSKCN1ON0ER https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybe... [1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredible-u-s-china-soybean-nosedive-one-chart-161047194.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredible-u-s-china-soybean-...

gammateam 8y ago

Well the Hong Kong autonomy expires in 2047 It would be negligent not to continually manage and revise the plans as the economies change. It would be stranger to know that you are legally obligated to annex and support a neighboring economic powerhouse with a totally parallel incompatible culture that was ignored or isolated for 50 years. Instead, Mainland China has become less and less aligned with Marx’s teachings, and Hong Kong has become more and more aligned with the rest of the bay area economic regions.

ngcc_hk 8y ago
The whole idea is not sending hker to hell of communists. The struggle of hongkonger for basic human rights are getting worse and worse. Not sure why you get this idea.
- johnzim 8y ago
  CCP propaganda is strong - that's why. Look at the language used "return" - people still think HK was leased. It wasn't - the New Territories were. People don't care about HK people. I wish they did but no one does. At least Tibet has some awareness surrounding it in the West - HK just got hung out to dry. Of all the colonies from which British rule was removed, only HK got handed over to the thugs, thieves and torturers its population had previously escaped. Everyone else got independence. HKers didn't even get UK passports.
  - em500 8y ago
    > Look at the language used "return" - people still think HK was leased. It wasn't - the New Territories were. And most of Kowloon. As opposed to HK Island, which was obtained by legitimate conquest, I suppose? > Of all the colonies from which British rule was removed, only HK got handed over to the thugs, thieves and torturers its population had previously escaped. What realistic alternative would you have suggested to Thatcher at the time?
    - NeedMoreTea 8y ago

porpoisely 8y ago

That doesn't make much sense since hong kong and macau were only returned to china within the last 20 years give or take. And in that time, china has never been diplomatically isolated.