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Turkey joining the EU was another example from the Brexit campaign - it was clearly nonsense (Turkey might want to join the EU but the chances of that happening

Turkey joining the EU was another example from the Brexit campaign - it was clearly nonsense (Turkey might want to join the EU but the chances of that happening any time soon is pretty much zero): https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/unfounded-claim-turkey-swing-brexit-referendum/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/unfounded-claim-tu...

NeedMoreTea 8y ago
The Facebook Ads, when those were revealed, were nothing more than racist lies. Trying to imply all of Turkey would be in the UK without Brexit. Just like we had all of Greece, and all of Poland then, where there's naught but a wilderness now.
- arethuza 8y ago
  Of course, one thing that I hadn't realised until watching "Brexit: the Uncivil War" is that by using targetted ads in Facebook only the groups targetted get to see the ads - so the other side of the debate, the press and the general public are completely oblivious to what is actually being communicated.
growlist 8y ago
Indeed, here's another example: 'Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says. Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.'
- pjc50 8y ago
  Well, the shock hasn't arrived yet, but we've not left yet either. Businesses have held off on action due to the lack of clarity but are starting to move out now. Edit: Honda Swindon is the latest, just now.
  - growlist 8y ago
    Utterly immaterial to my post. Here's what he said: 'a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock' No mention of 'when we leave', is there? Also if you have a special hotline to Honda management please enlighten us further, because as far as I'm aware nothing has been shared at this time pointing to it being caused by Brexit. Also there are significant global trends affecting the car industry that have nothing to do with Brexit. Please don't be disingenuous.
    - rjtavares 8y ago
      > Here's what he said: 'a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock' Did you even read your own post? > 'Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says. Leaving is not voting to leave. UK hasn't left yet. Note that I think that the statement is wrong, but it certainly hasn't been disproven yet.
repolfx 8y ago
Most of the things said about Brexit in both directions were predictions about the future. Many such predictions were obviously nonsense but could be justified on the grounds that it could happen, or rather, that the speakers believed strongly that the predictions were not nonsense. A sibling post has already highlighted one of the most notorious examples (voting Leave will trigger an immediate and huge recession), which was promoted as totally the consensus and nobody intelligent could possibly disagree with this guaranteed-to-happen-by-experts prediction. But there were many others (£4300 worse off in 15 years or whatever it was). Did the government really believe these predictions? We can't really know if they were intentionally manipulative or earnestly believed. The Turkey case is maybe a bit like that. How likely it is to happen depends a lot on your beliefs about what future EU leadership will do. Recall that Turkey joining has been official policy in the not too distant past. Recall also that the people who ultimately control the EU - men like Juncker - routinely say in public that all borders are bad and that the future of Europe is vast quantities of Islamic immigration, that there is a moral imperative to let that happen in fact. And Turkey is a huge and Islamic country on the border of the EU that wants to join the EU. You don't have to be particularly weird or paranoid to assume that whatever objections may currently exist might go away in future. Or you could say it's evil and manipulative and fake news. Depends entirely on your perspective. There's one difference - the economic prediction was short term and already proven false. Turkey joining the EU was a long term prediction with no particular attached timeline, I think. It's harder to falsify.

NeedMoreTea 8y ago

The Facebook Ads, when those were revealed, were nothing more than racist lies. Trying to imply all of Turkey would be in the UK without Brexit. Just like we had all of Greece, and all of Poland then, where there's naught but a wilderness now.

arethuza 8y ago
Of course, one thing that I hadn't realised until watching "Brexit: the Uncivil War" is that by using targetted ads in Facebook only the groups targetted get to see the ads - so the other side of the debate, the press and the general public are completely oblivious to what is actually being communicated.

growlist 8y ago

Indeed, here's another example: 'Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says. Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.'

pjc50 8y ago
Well, the shock hasn't arrived yet, but we've not left yet either. Businesses have held off on action due to the lack of clarity but are starting to move out now. Edit: Honda Swindon is the latest, just now.
- growlist 8y ago
  Utterly immaterial to my post. Here's what he said: 'a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock' No mention of 'when we leave', is there? Also if you have a special hotline to Honda management please enlighten us further, because as far as I'm aware nothing has been shared at this time pointing to it being caused by Brexit. Also there are significant global trends affecting the car industry that have nothing to do with Brexit. Please don't be disingenuous.
  - rjtavares 8y ago
    > Here's what he said: 'a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock' Did you even read your own post? > 'Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says. Leaving is not voting to leave. UK hasn't left yet. Note that I think that the statement is wrong, but it certainly hasn't been disproven yet.

repolfx 8y ago

Most of the things said about Brexit in both directions were predictions about the future. Many such predictions were obviously nonsense but could be justified on the grounds that it could happen, or rather, that the speakers believed strongly that the predictions were not nonsense. A sibling post has already highlighted one of the most notorious examples (voting Leave will trigger an immediate and huge recession), which was promoted as totally the consensus and nobody intelligent could possibly disagree with this guaranteed-to-happen-by-experts prediction. But there were many others (£4300 worse off in 15 years or whatever it was). Did the government really believe these predictions? We can't really know if they were intentionally manipulative or earnestly believed. The Turkey case is maybe a bit like that. How likely it is to happen depends a lot on your beliefs about what future EU leadership will do. Recall that Turkey joining has been official policy in the not too distant past. Recall also that the people who ultimately control the EU - men like Juncker - routinely say in public that all borders are bad and that the future of Europe is vast quantities of Islamic immigration, that there is a moral imperative to let that happen in fact. And Turkey is a huge and Islamic country on the border of the EU that wants to join the EU. You don't have to be particularly weird or paranoid to assume that whatever objections may currently exist might go away in future. Or you could say it's evil and manipulative and fake news. Depends entirely on your perspective. There's one difference - the economic prediction was short term and already proven false. Turkey joining the EU was a long term prediction with no particular attached timeline, I think. It's harder to falsify.